Ehi Braimah highlights 10 critical factors, including political influence and economic hardship, that will determine the outcome of the Edo governorship election.

[dropcap]A[/dropcap]s the Edo governorship election hits up, political analyst Ehi Braimah has identified 10 key factors that are likely to influence the outcome of the vote.

With tensions rising and key players positioning themselves for a crucial win, Braimah outlines the elements that will determine which candidate emerges victorious in the state’s highly anticipated election.

One of the most significant factors will be the influence of key political actors. The backing of powerful figures and their ability to mobilise support can sway voters and impact election day outcomes.

Closely related is the power of incumbency, which gives the current administration control over local government areas (LGAs). Happy civil servants and pensioners, combined with the incumbent governor’s overall performance and relationship with the Oba’s palace, will also play a role.

A critical factor for a fair election will be the neutrality of INEC and security agencies, whose impartiality is necessary to ensure a credible election. Election observers, including civil society organisations (CSOs), will also need to be vigilant to deter any malpractice.

Braimah notes that the current economic hardship could shape voter behaviour, particularly as voter suppression remains a concern.

The widespread use of federal might and vote buying—often termed “stomach infrastructure”—is expected to surface, further complicating the fairness of the election.

Other factors include potential vote manipulation, violence, and ballot box snatching, which have historically marred elections in Nigeria. However, the impactful campaign of Olumide Akpata, a leading contender, could stir significant momentum in his favour.

Finally, the climate of fear and voter apathy cannot be ignored. Many voters may choose to stay away from the polls, fearful of violence or simply disillusioned with the political process.

The success of the election will largely depend on overcoming this voter apathy and ensuring widespread participation.

Braimah, who is also the publisher of Naija Times and chairman, Naija Times Journalism Foundation, says Edo State people should come out and vote, then defend their votes.

“Edo people are intelligent, smart, discerning and forthright. They know the stakes are high in the gubernatorial election, and they should therefore shine their eyes and vote right,” he concluded.