Will Tinubu’s appointment of the next INEC chairman prioritise fairness or political gain ahead of Nigeria’s pivotal 2027 elections?

By Bola Bolawole

As Nigeria moves steadily towards the 2027 general elections, fresh debates have erupted over the anticipated appointment of the next INEC chairman.

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With current chairman Mahmood Yakubu’s tenure set to end, speculation is rife that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu will handpick a successor favourable to his political ambitions.

The South-West, President Tinubu’s home region, has never produced a chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

Is it finally their turn—or is something more calculated at play?

A lively exchange between two concerned citizens—laced with wit, sarcasm, and biting political insight—captured the mood:

“Who do you think Tinubu will appoint as the next INEC chair?”
“Well, the South-West is due, isn’t it?”

But as one quickly pointed out, whether it’s called a “recommendation” or “appointment,” the president’s word is final—the National Assembly has never rejected such nominations.

And as history shows, Nigeria’s legislature rarely resists presidential directives.

The conversation soon turned towards lobbying, which many believe is already in full swing.

Reports of a possible candidate—yet unconfirmed—have made their rounds on social media, fuelling anxiety about political manipulation and lack of transparency in the selection process.

With memories still fresh from the 2023 elections and the infamous “grab it, snatch it, and run with it” political mantra, some fear the ruling party may be preparing to consolidate power by influencing the electoral umpire.

“What does the president want to achieve in 2027?”
“A second term, of course—no more, no less.”

And if that’s the goal, then a loyal INEC chair could prove instrumental.

But critics argue that such political engineering undermines democracy and destroys public trust in electoral institutions.

The discussion takes an unexpected philosophical turn, referencing everyone from Machiavelli and Biblical Jonathan to former President Goodluck Jonathan.

Jonathan, often celebrated for peacefully conceding defeat in 2015, is framed here not as a hero—but as a man who handed power to forces that later “consigned Nigeria to terrorists.”

A voice asks, “Should Tinubu follow Jonathan’s example?”

“Never,” comes the reply. “He dropped both the yam and the knife and ran.”

There’s an eerie sense of realpolitik here—where morality gives way to strategy, and power is neither conceded lightly nor held altruistically.

The final concern centres on the credibility of the 2027 elections.

Can they be truly free and fair with the current political culture? Or will they merely reflect the power plays of the elite?

“It will be free to the extent previous elections were free.”
“It will be fair to the extent the people are fair to themselves.”

In other words, expect more of the same—unless something radically changes.

The author invokes German playwright Bertolt Brecht, referencing his satirical poem “The Solution”, in which a government, having lost the people’s trust, considers dissolving the people instead of itself.

“Would it not be easier… for the government to dissolve the people and elect another?”

A chilling metaphor, but not far-fetched in a system where elections are routinely questioned, and power is preserved at all costs.

Final Word: Which Is Easier—Justice or Manipulation?

Can Nigeria appoint a competent, independent INEC chairman ahead of 2027? Or will political calculations override justice, equity, and fair play?

For now, the smart money may be on the latter.

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As the writer muses in closing, perhaps solving Nigeria’s electoral problem is as difficult as solving “the mathematical wonder of 2520”—a riddle best left for another day.