Adeleke vs. Aregbesola: The social contract and prisoner's dilemma perspectives

Adeleke vs Aregbesola political alliance collapses as mutual distrust, new alliances, and Osun 2026 interests reshape loyalties and deepen political confrontation

With the strong-worded ballistic response of Mallam Olawale Rasheed to Aregbesola, one will clearly understand that the ‘unholy’ alliance has gotten sour and the honeymoon has ended.

Also read: Dreaming big without loyalty: Yari Group slams Aregbesola’s 2027 ambition against Tinubu

Two political models can help understand this new tensed relationship between these erstwhile allying groups: the Social Contract Theory and the Prisoner’s Dilemma Perspective of Game Theory.

From the perspective of Social Contract Theory, the Adeleke-led group and that of Aregbesola believe the exchange of political supports which have existed before isn’t longer needed or should take another dimension due to interests modifications within the two camps ahead of 2026.

This alone has severed the relationship, while the recent overt confrontations have brought about a sense of betrayal (in the context of the jolly good fellow they’ve been), thereby leading to a breakdown in cooperation and a shift in power dynamics.

The proposition of Prisoner’s Dilemma of Game Theory also gives a clear understanding of why the alliance is being severed.

Another honeymoon is being pushed for their ‘phantom’ new alliance with the APC.

Due to the changing interests of Osun 2026 where the two groups also seek to either retain or occupy the coveted Governorship seat, Adeleke-led group (party) believes APC is the only viable party to lean towards instead of maintaining the existing alliance with Aregbesola-led group.

Although faced with strong resistance, this covert move of Adeleke keeps giving Aregbesola-led group a political discomfort because such alliance will render his group more useless. That’s politics being played out.

Wondering why the piece from the CPS cleverly exonerated the administration of His Excellency, Governor Adegboyega Oyetola despite the heavy knocks on Aregbesola?! It’s very simple to understand.

Another honeymoon is being pushed for their “phantom” new alliance with the APC and the heavy attack on Adeleke’s erstwhile bride (Aregbesola) is a way of showing loyalty to the progressive fold, having known that Aregbesola remains a pariah to the progressive family. It’s all game of politics.

Also read: PDP Osun coalition denial sparks emotional defence of Adeleke’s loyalty

In short, new interests have severed the relationship between the two groups, while the cross-road which Adeleke dynasty has found itself in forming the new alliance as well as the new political intrigues unsettling the Aregbesola’s camp remain the driving force of the newly found confrontations between the two allies.

We keep observing, as events unfold!