Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased marginally to 15.39 per cent in August 2026, down from 15.43 per cent in July, as the pace of food-price increases slowed significantly, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

The latest figure represents a decline of 0.04 percentage points and marks the third consecutive monthly moderation in headline inflation. It is also considerably lower than the 23.14 per cent recorded in August 2025.

The NBS reported that the Consumer Price Index, which measures changes in the prices of goods and services consumed by households, rose to 146.3 points in August from 145.3 points in July.

On a month-on-month basis, however, inflation slowed more sharply, falling to 0.71 per cent in August from 1.57 per cent in July. This indicates that the average level of prices continued to rise, but at a slower pace than in the previous month.

Food inflation was a major factor behind the moderation. Annual food inflation declined to 19.57 per cent in August, compared with 20.31 per cent in July and 25.30 per cent in August 2025.

The monthly food inflation rate also fell substantially to 1.02 per cent in August from 5.56 per cent in July. The NBS attributed the slower increase partly to changes in the prices of commodities including palm oil, carrots, pepper, onions, cassava flour, beef, yam flour, water yam, melon, fresh ginger, fresh fish, Irish potatoes, wheat grain, frozen chicken and turkey.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices, also moderated, falling to 13.29 per cent year-on-year in August from 14.97 per cent in July and 22.93 per cent in August 2025. On a monthly basis, core inflation stood at -0.06 per cent, compared with 0.15 per cent in July.

Despite the improvement, the Organised Private Sector has warned that the latest decline should be treated cautiously, particularly amid rising energy costs and continuing geopolitical tensions.

Dr Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, said the marginal movement suggested that there had been little significant change in the inflation outlook. He identified energy costs as a major risk because higher prices for petrol, diesel, gas and other energy products feed into transportation, production and operating costs across the economy.

Yusuf also pointed to global developments, particularly tensions in the Middle East, as a potential source of renewed inflationary pressure through higher crude oil prices and disruptions to international energy and shipping markets.

Similarly, the President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria, Femi Egbesola, said the 15.39 per cent figure did not fully reflect the pressures being experienced by businesses and households.

He warned that higher fuel prices could feed into subsequent inflation reports because petroleum products remain an important input in transportation and business operations. Egbesola also called for greater government investment in areas such as electricity, roads, healthcare, education and compressed natural gas infrastructure to reduce the pressure on businesses and households.

The latest inflation figures therefore present a mixed picture for the Nigerian economy.

While the headline rate and food inflation have continued to moderate, businesses remain exposed to energy and transportation costs, while external shocks could put renewed pressure on domestic prices.

The NBS data also showed significant differences across states. Adamawa recorded the highest year-on-year food inflation at 38.85 per cent in August, followed by Zamfara at 37.96 per cent and Bayelsa at 36.20 per cent.

With inflation still elevated despite the recent moderation, the sustainability of the downward trend is likely to depend on food supply, energy prices, exchange-rate stability and developments in global commodity markets.