Nigeria’s democratic development depends not only on credible elections but also on responsible journalism and an informed electorate. In the view of Nosa Osaikhuiwu, sections of the Nigerian media and political commentary class have fallen short of this responsibility, particularly in their coverage and interpretation of the 2023 presidential election.

Writing from Houston, Texas, Osaikhuiwu argues that rather than critically examining the political realities behind the outcome, some media platforms amplified unsubstantiated allegations of electoral fraud by defeated candidates without sufficiently interrogating the evidence. This, he says, has contributed to public distrust and weakened confidence in critical democratic institutions, particularly the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the judiciary.

He highlights a key principle of electoral politics that he believes has been largely overlooked: when opposition forces divide their strength among competing candidates, they can strengthen the position of an incumbent under a winner-takes-all system. He cites examples from the United States, including Ross Perot’s impact in 1992 and Ralph Nader’s role in 2000.

Applying the same principle to Nigeria in 2023, Osaikhuiwu notes that Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar contested separately against President Bola Tinubu. Although their combined votes exceeded Tinubu’s total, elections are decided by the votes secured by individual candidates under established rules, not by post-election addition of rivals’ tallies.

Looking ahead to 2027, he observes a similar opposition configuration emerging, with Atiku and Obi again pursuing separate ambitions. While acknowledging the economic hardships associated with Tinubu’s reforms and the administration’s political vulnerability, Osaikhuiwu stresses that public dissatisfaction does not automatically translate into an organised electoral movement capable of defeating an incumbent.

He criticises suggestions by some media personalities that the 2027 elections will be rigged even before they take place, describing such pronouncements as irresponsible. Journalists, he argues, must interrogate claims, examine evidence and educate the public rather than merely amplify the statements of political actors.

Osaikhuiwu maintains that while there may have been logistical shortcomings in 2023, these did not materially alter the final outcome, which was declared by INEC and upheld through the judicial process. Disagreement with a result, he says, is not in itself evidence of fraud.

He concludes that if the opposition genuinely seeks to defeat Tinubu in 2027, it must address its divisions and build a viable electoral coalition. Individual popularity, social media enthusiasm and public dissatisfaction cannot substitute for organisation, coalition-building and grassroots mobilisation.

“Journalism must educate, not mislead. Political commentary must analyze, not merely amplify. And democracy must be grounded in electoral reality, not political wishful thinking,” he writes.