Ogun State has ranked 31st out of 35 states in Nigeria’s overall fiscal performance assessment, with its debt stock rising to ₦538.92bn in 2025, according to the 2026 State of States Report by BudgIT.

The report, which examined the financial performance of states during the 2025 fiscal year, also showed that Ogun recorded a fiscal deficit of ₦341.62bn, raising questions about its expenditure pattern, debt management and capacity to meet financial obligations.

Despite generating ₦238.5bn in internally generated revenue, the state’s total expenditure increased by 43.7 per cent, from ₦593.27bn in 2024 to ₦852.50bn in 2025.

The assessment placed Ogun among the five lowest-ranked states in overall fiscal performance, while Lagos emerged as the highest-ranked state.

Ogun’s debt stock also increased considerably over five years, rising from ₦282.30bn in 2021 to ₦331.77bn in 2022, ₦430.52bn in 2023, ₦508.02bn in 2024 and ₦538.92bn in 2025.

The increase represents approximately 90.9 per cent growth between 2021 and 2025, making Ogun the fourth most indebted state in the assessment.

The state’s domestic debt rose from ₦211.86bn in 2024 to ₦227.47bn in 2025, while its external debt increased from $192.90m to $217m within the same period.

The report also put Ogun’s debt per capita at approximately ₦76,746, compared with internally generated revenue per capita of ₦33,964.

Expenditure Rises as Revenue Declines

Another major concern highlighted by the report was the increase in government expenditure despite a marginal decline in total revenue.

Ogun’s total expenditure rose to ₦852.50bn in 2025 from ₦593.27bn in the preceding year, representing a 43.7 per cent increase.

Capital expenditure also increased significantly, climbing from ₦150bn in 2024 to ₦337.21bn in 2025.

This represented an increase of approximately 124.8 per cent, with capital spending accounting for 46.33 per cent of the state’s total expenditure.

However, the report’s figures raise questions about the projects financed through the increased capital spending, their completion status and the extent to which they have improved public services across the state.

The state also recorded operating expenses and loan repayments of ₦458.85bn in 2025, leaving ₦52.03bn from its total revenue after meeting those obligations, according to the assessment.

Contractor and Pension Arrears Reach ₦176.17bn

Beyond its conventional debt profile, Ogun had outstanding financial obligations amounting to ₦176.17bn in 2025.

The liabilities comprised ₦97.91bn in contractor obligations, ₦69.95bn in pension and gratuity arrears, and ₦8.31bn in other liabilities.

The contractor obligations represent payments owed to businesses and individuals for government projects, while the pension and gratuity arrears concern outstanding entitlements due to retired public servants.

The figures add to the financial commitments confronting the state as it manages its debt stock and other expenditure obligations.

However, these liabilities should be distinguished from the reported debt stock, as they are separate categories of financial obligations and should not automatically be added to the ₦538.92bn debt figure.

Ogun Ranks Third in Internally Generated Revenue

Despite its poor overall fiscal performance ranking, Ogun remained one of the leading states in internally generated revenue.

The state ranked third nationally in IGR, with ₦238.5bn generated in 2025.

However, its position in revenue generation did not translate into a similarly strong overall fiscal performance, as it ranked 31st in the assessment.

The report also indicated that Ogun’s internally generated revenue was equivalent to 61.04 per cent of its operating expenses, showing that the revenue was insufficient to cover those costs on its own.

Its IGR-to-personnel-cost ratio, however, stood at 167.09 per cent, indicating that internally generated revenue was sufficient to meet personnel expenditure.

The assessment examined states across revenue performance, fiscal viability, debt sustainability and spending on critical sectors, including health, education, agriculture, and water, sanitation and hygiene.

Rivers State was excluded from the final ranking because the required audited financial statements and budget implementation reports were unavailable, leaving 35 states in the assessment.

Questions Over Fiscal Management

The findings have drawn attention to the relationship between Ogun’s revenue generation, rising expenditure and growing debt obligations.

With expenditure increasing faster than revenue, the state faces the challenge of managing its financial commitments while maintaining funding for infrastructure and essential public services.

The increase in capital expenditure also makes transparency over project execution and the use of public funds an important issue for residents and other stakeholders.

The report provides a basis for assessing how effectively the state has managed its resources, particularly given its position as a major industrial and commercial destination in the South-West.

For the administration of Governor Dapo Abiodun, the figures highlight the need to address outstanding obligations, strengthen fiscal management and ensure that public spending translates into measurable improvements in the lives of residents.