Petrol price increase in Nigeria looms as crude oil rises above $70 per barrel, with marketers warning pump prices could hit N1,000 per litre
The pump price of Premium Motor Spirit may rise to as high as N1,000 per litre in the coming days as a surge in global crude oil prices intensifies pressure on Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market, fuel marketers have warned.
Also read: Dangote Refinery raises petrol price as festive cut ends
Industry operators said the sudden jump in international crude prices to above $70 per barrel could trigger another round of increases in the pump prices of both imported and locally refined petroleum products, compounding the impact of recent adjustments by domestic refiners.
The warning comes days after the Dangote Petroleum Refinery raised its petrol price from N739 to N839 per litre, while global oil prices climbed to their highest levels in five months.
On Thursday, crude prices rose by about three per cent amid fears that escalating tensions between the United States and Iran could disrupt global supply.
According to Reuters, Brent crude futures rose $2.31, or 3.4 per cent, to settle at $70.71 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate gained $2.21, or 3.5 per cent, to $65.42 per barrel.
Data from Oilprice.com showed further increases on Friday afternoon, with Brent at $70.89 and WTI at $65.80.
Brent crude serves as the global benchmark for oil pricing, and sustained increases typically translate into higher costs for refined petroleum products worldwide.
Reuters reported that the US Iran tensions pushed both crude benchmarks into technically overbought territory, with Brent closing at its highest level since July 31 and WTI since September 26.
Analysts warned that market concerns extend beyond price movements. PVM analyst John Evans said the immediate fear is the risk of supply disruption if Iran targets neighbouring states or blocks the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 million barrels of oil pass daily.
Iran ranked as the third largest crude oil producer in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in 2025, behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration.
Speaking with our correspondent, the National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, said sustained increases in crude prices could significantly affect domestic pump prices.
According to Ukadike, crude oil prices and foreign exchange rates remain the primary determinants of fuel pricing, adding that a spike in either factor would inevitably reflect at filling stations.
“As an independent marketer, we don’t want prices to go up, but any increase we are seeing now is driven by international crude oil dynamics,” Ukadike said.
“If this crude surge continues, petrol could hit N1,000 per litre, especially in areas far from refineries or depots. That is the market reality.”
He added that rising prices are already straining marketers’ purchasing power and slowing fuel sales, as consumers reduce consumption in response to higher costs.
“Too much naira is now chasing fewer litres of petrol, and that pressure is affecting both marketers and consumers,” he said.
Another major oil marketer and petrol importer, who spoke on condition of anonymity, confirmed that the landing cost of PMS could exceed N900 per litre if global crude prices remain elevated.
“There is already funding pressure to import petrol based on pricing signals from suppliers,” the dealer said. “If crude prices stay on this upward path, N1,000 per litre is not far from the range.
We have seen similar levels before when crude hovered around $75 per barrel.”
Our correspondent reports that most filling stations adjusted their pump prices following the Dangote refinery’s latest increase.
In Lagos, prices ranged between N830 and N859 per litre on Friday, with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited selling PMS at N849. MRS filling stations, a Dangote partner, sold at N839, while some outlets offered slightly lower prices.
Amid rising prices, the Dangote refinery on Thursday reaffirmed its capacity to meet Nigeria’s domestic fuel demand, stating it can supply 75 million litres of petrol daily against estimated national consumption of 50 million litres.
In a statement, the refinery said it can also produce 25 million litres of diesel and 20 million litres of aviation fuel daily, volumes far exceeding domestic demand.
The company said this excess capacity provides critical supply buffers, strengthens market stability, and reduces reliance on imports during periods of global volatility.
Also read: NNPC reduces petrol prices to N740 in Lagos
The refinery reaffirmed its commitment to regulatory compliance and collaboration with the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, stressing that expanded domestic refining remains central to Nigeria’s energy security and long term price stability.
