The Wagner Group’s recent rebellion against the Russian military is certain to spur changes to the mercenary organization that will affect its operations in Africa.
But whatever entity ends up controlling Wagner — or even if the mercenary group simply gets a new brand name and logo — it will not change the tactics Russia has used for years to spread influence and harvest resources in African countries.
Using the Wagner Group as its proxy, Russia has been “testing and perfecting a nightmarish blueprint for state capture” in the Central African Republic (CAR), according to a new report from investigative and policy organization The Sentry.
In just five years, the Wagner Group has infiltrated and taken control of CAR’s military and its political and economic systems, said Nathalia Dukhan, senior investigator and head of The Sentry’s Wagner program.
“The Central African Republic has become Wagner Group’s laboratory of terror,” she said in a June 27 statement. “Russia has revealed its plan for psychological warfare and domination — a truly new kind of ultraviolent colonialism.
“Without urgent and coordinated global action to counter this threat, Wagner’s predatory terrorist network will continue to spread and sow devastation wherever it takes root.”
President Faustin-Archange Touadéra invited the Russian mercenaries to the CAR in late 2017 to be his personal security team, provide military training and stave off a rebel offensive that was closing in on the capital, Bangui.
Since then, Wagner has installed an agent as Touadéra’s top advisor for national security and has developed a transnational network of proxies and shell companies operating from Cameroon, Madagascar and Sudan — all leading back to Moscow.
“There are so many African subsidiaries,” Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime senior analyst Julia Stanyard told The New York Times. “We only know the tip of the iceberg.”
Wagner has tightened its grip on the CAR’s most precious natural resources, specifically gold and diamonds, at a time when Russia desperately needs to weather international sanctions imposed for its 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
According to politician Crépin Mboli-Goumba, Touadéra is a victim of Russia’s state capture.
“The Central African Republic and Touadéra are being held hostage by a mafia — not a national but an international one — the Wagner Group,” he told The Africa Report magazine.
The primary victims, however, are the people of the CAR. Wagner fighters have been accused of atrocities and human rights abuses, including killing and torturing civilians.
The CAR had the highest death rate in the world over the past year with 5.6% of the population dying, more than double anywhere else, according to a 2023 Columbia University report that directly linked the scale of death to Wagner’s presence.
Multiple military sources told The Sentry that part of Wagner’s training involved “cleansing” and “sweeping,” which meant killing entire communities, including women and children.
“It was a Russian instructor who gave the training … it included commando training, interrogation, aggressive techniques, torture, violence,” a member of the presidential guard who received the training told The Sentry.
Two weeks after Wagner’s aborted mutiny in Russia, as many as 600 Wagner mercenaries reportedly left the CAR, spurring speculation that they might have been summoned to join either the Russian military or the Wagner forces in exile in Belarus.
A CAR government spokesperson on July 8 said the demobilization was part of a rotation rather than a withdrawal. It is not known how many remain, although 1,900 Russian mercenaries were believed to be deployed at one point.
Despite the chaos, Russia has assured CAR officials that its operations will continue “without interruption.”
Benjamin Haddad, a French member of parliament, called the Wagner rebellion in Russia “a warning” for African leaders who employ the mercenary group, according to Politico.
“The lesson learned here is that the instability that Wagner is seeking to export, backfires on its own regime,” he stated. “Nations who call on their services, lose a part of their sovereignty.”
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