Adeleke Osun win issues stark warning APC is beatable as the governor retains power with 511,067 votes, highlighting risks for Tinubu’s party in 2027
Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party secured a second term in the Osun State governorship election held on Saturday 15 August 2026.
The Independent National Electoral Commission declared him the winner in Osogbo on Sunday 16 August 2026 after he polled 511,067 votes against 444,815 for All Progressives Congress candidate Bola Oyebamiji.
The margin of 66,252 votes saw Adeleke carry 19 of the state’s 30 local government areas while Oyebamiji took 11. African Democratic Congress candidate Najeem Salaam finished third with 17,180 votes. A total of 1,010,684 voters were accredited and 985,079 valid votes were recorded.
The outcome offers a clear signal that APC is beatable.
The ruling party remains Nigeria’s governing force with extensive structures and resources, yet the Osun result demonstrates that machinery alone does not equal popularity. National and regional heavyweights concentrated their efforts in the state, yet the campaign failed to deliver victory.
Adeleke dedicated the win to the people of Osun. “I will not disappoint you,” he said. “There is no victor, no vanquished. I extend my olive branch to my co-contestants.”
He also confirmed that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu had telephoned to congratulate him and restated his support for the President’s 2027 re-election bid on grounds of shared South-West interests.
APC figures have pointed to internal factors.
A former minority leader of the House of Representatives, Farouq Aliyu, noted that disagreements over the candidate’s selection led some members to withhold full backing.
The Osun APC chapter said it was reviewing results from all 332 wards before deciding on any legal challenge. Other party voices in the South-West described the result as a reflection of local circumstances rather than a wider rejection of the federal government.
The contest also drew attention to reported irregularities.
The Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project has urged the Independent National Electoral Commission, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission and the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission to investigate allegations of vote-buying, inducement, intimidation and violence.
Preliminary observer accounts recorded more than 300 incidents across hundreds of polling units. These claims remain subject to formal inquiry.
One practical lesson centres on candidate selection.
Between now and the 2027 general election the APC still has time to examine assumptions behind ticket allocation.
In Ogun State, for instance, independent polling and a ward-by-ward review of the 2023 results in Ogun East Senatorial District could test whether prospective candidates command genuine support beyond party structures.
In the 2023 senatorial election Otunba Gbenga Daniel of the APC swept all nine local government areas of Ogun East with 115,147 votes, more than double the 58,708 polled by his nearest rival. By contrast, in the concurrent governorship contest Governor Dapo Abiodun of the APC secured the statewide victory with 276,298 votes but lost seven of the nine local government areas in the same Ogun East district to the Peoples Democratic Party.
The divergence illustrates how personal popularity and local dynamics can differ sharply even within the same party and the same zone. An election ticket is a costly way to settle political debts. Where evidence shows a candidate lacks organic appeal, alternative forms of recognition remain available.
The 2027 contest will differ sharply from a single-state governorship race. Political heavyweights will largely defend their own constituencies.
Resources that can be focused on one state cannot be replicated simultaneously across the country. Imported muscle and intimidation face practical limits when every actor is occupied in their home territory and when nearly 177,000 polling units operate under the gaze of party agents, citizens, journalists, technology and domestic and international observers.
Osun sits within the South-West, long regarded as a core area for Tinubu.
In the 2023 presidential election the six South-West states together delivered approximately 2.28 million of the 8.79 million votes that secured his national victory.
That was a period when the mythology of invincibility remained strong. Four years of incumbency change the equation.
Citizens experience the economy through their daily costs of food, transport, school fees and business survival rather than through official statistics alone.
Police officers, security personnel, electoral officials and civil servants share the same national realities.
The assumption that institutions will automatically favour an incumbent underestimates the complexity of a modern election conducted in full public view.
Social media and high-profile voices, including the public role played by musician David Adeleke known as Davido, have already shown how quickly local incidents can reach national and international audiences.
The Adeleke Osun win does not prove that Tinubu will lose in 2027. It does show that APC is beatable when popularity is lacking and when arrogance replaces careful assessment of the ground.
The party has a limited window to replace demonstrably weak candidates, address internal discontent and confront the gap between official narratives and household experience.
Self-preservation, rather than overconfidence, may prove the more useful instinct in the months ahead.
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Ojelabi, the publisher of Freelanews, is an award winning and professionally trained mass communicator and a recipient of the D9112 Superstar Icon Award, who writes ruthlessly about pop culture, religion, politics and entertainment.
