Nigeria could face increased heat and changing rainfall patterns as a strengthening El Niño event raises concerns about its potential effects on agriculture, water supplies, electricity generation and public health.

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said in September 2026 that El Niño was expected to strengthen into a very strong event and persist into early 2027.

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The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has also warned that the climate phenomenon could influence rainfall patterns, including the duration of the rainy season and when it ends.

But what is El Niño, how could it affect Nigeria, and what can the country do to prepare?

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon characterised by warmer-than-average surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

The warming influences atmospheric circulation and can alter weather patterns across different parts of the world.

Depending on the region, it may contribute to higher temperatures, reduced or excessive rainfall and changes in seasonal conditions.

El Niño forms part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate pattern that also includes La Niña, its cooler phase, and neutral conditions.

According to the WMO, El Niño typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts between nine and 12 months. Although it develops far from Nigeria, its influence on global atmospheric circulation can affect weather conditions in West Africa.

However, its effects vary by location. A strong El Niño does not automatically mean every part of Nigeria will experience drought, extreme heat or reduced rainfall.

NiMet’s August 2026 seasonal climate update identified the onset of a strong El Niño event and outlined possible implications for rainfall, agriculture, water resources and energy production.

For August to October 2026, the agency forecast normal to above-normal rainfall across much of northern Nigeria, while parts of the South-West and Cross River State were expected to experience normal to below-normal rainfall.

These projections highlight the possibility of different weather conditions across the country, reinforcing the need for state-specific forecasts and preparation.

One major concern is the possibility of increased heat. In October 2026, the Climate Impact Lab projected that Nigeria could record an additional 31,400 heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027, compared with an average year.

The figure is a model-based estimate of potential excess deaths, not a confirmed death toll or a certainty that those deaths will occur.

Extreme heat can cause dehydration, heat exhaustion and potentially fatal heatstroke.

Children, older people and outdoor workers are particularly vulnerable.

Health authorities can help reduce these risks through public awareness campaigns, timely heat warnings and better preparation of health facilities for heat-related emergencies.

Residents should drink water regularly, seek shade, limit strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest periods where possible, and check on vulnerable relatives and neighbours.

Changes in rainfall could disrupt planting schedules and crop development. Prolonged dry spells or an early end to the rainy season may reduce yields, while excessive rainfall can cause flooding and damage farmland.

NiMet has identified potential agricultural risks in areas expecting below-normal rainfall, including parts of Borno and Yobe states.

Farmers should monitor updated weather forecasts, consider early-maturing or drought-tolerant crop varieties where suitable, and seek guidance from agricultural extension officers.

In areas expecting heavier rainfall, maintaining drainage channels can help limit damage to crops and farmland.

Government agencies also need to improve farmers’ access to timely weather information and practical agricultural advice.

Prolonged rainfall deficits can reduce river flows, reservoir levels and groundwater recharge, putting pressure on domestic water supplies and irrigation.

Hydropower generation could also be affected if water inflows into dams decline.

NiMet has identified reduced water availability and lower reservoir inflows as potential risks, although these concerns do not confirm nationwide water shortages or electricity disruptions.

Water authorities should monitor reservoirs and groundwater conditions, identify vulnerable communities and develop contingency plans. Residents can contribute by repairing leaking taps and avoiding unnecessary water waste.

Energy planners should also assess potential risks to hydropower production and prepare for changes in water availability.

Adverse weather conditions could reduce agricultural output, damage farms and disrupt transportation, potentially putting pressure on food supplies and prices.

However, El Niño alone does not mean food prices will rise nationwide.

Harvest levels, storage capacity, transport costs and broader market conditions will also influence food availability and prices.

The government should monitor food supplies, support farmers in vulnerable areas and strengthen storage and distribution systems to reduce avoidable losses.

Preparing for El Niño requires coordinated action by government agencies, state authorities, farmers, health workers, businesses and residents.

NiMet should continue issuing updated, location-specific forecasts and ensure that warnings reach rural communities and farmers, including people without reliable internet access.

Health authorities should educate the public about heat-related illnesses and strengthen emergency responses, particularly for vulnerable groups.

Agricultural ministries and extension officers should provide guidance on planting dates, crop selection, irrigation and drainage based on current forecasts.

Water agencies should monitor dams and reservoirs, reduce distribution losses and plan for communities that may face shortages.

Authorities must also prepare for heavy rainfall and flooding rather than focusing exclusively on drought.

Government agencies, broadcasters and journalists have a role in communicating climate information clearly, distinguishing projections from confirmed events and updating the public as conditions change.

Not necessarily. El Niño can increase the likelihood of certain climate-related impacts, but it does not determine precisely what will happen in every state.

The WMO has emphasised that even a very strong event does not produce equally severe effects everywhere. Local weather patterns and other climate drivers can influence its impact.

Nigeria’s priority should be to identify communities most vulnerable to heat and rainfall changes and prepare accordingly.

Following NiMet’s updates and taking practical precautions can help reduce risks to public health, agriculture, water resources and electricity generation.