Nigeria’s deepening food insecurity emergency, projected to engulf 33 million people in acute hunger during the 2025 lean season, has emerged as a dire national catastrophe fueled by rampant inflation, relentless violence in the northeast, and climate-induced disasters, casting a long shadow over the country’s economic recovery efforts and prompting urgent calls for multi-sectoral intervention from humanitarian agencies and the government.

What is driving this alarming surge? The Cadre Harmonisé analysis, a biannual food and nutrition assessment led by the Nigerian government with support from partners like the World Food Programme and Food and Agriculture Organization, reveals a seven million increase in affected individuals from the previous year, attributing the crisis to record-high inflation—reaching 40.9% for food and 34.2% overall in June 2024—coupled with transportation costs that have skyrocketed, making staples like beans 282% more expensive than in 2023. Who bears the brunt? Vulnerable populations, including 1.8 million children in six northeastern and northwestern states at risk of severe acute malnutrition—one of the world’s highest rates—along with internally displaced persons in Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe, where Boko Haram’s insurgency has displaced millions and destroyed livelihoods, exacerbating food shortages in a region already scarred by 15 years of conflict. When will the peak hit? The lean season from June to August 2025 is expected to see emergency levels of need nearly double, with 25.1 million already facing acute insecurity even during the current harvest period from October to December 2024, as floods and insecurity disrupt farming and markets.

Where are the hotspots? The northeast, particularly Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe states, remains the epicenter due to ongoing insurgency and displacement, while climate change—projecting Nigeria to lose up to $460 billion by 2050 from floods and erratic weather—has made the country one of Africa’s most flood-prone, with recent outbreaks like cholera in Borno, Adamawa, Jigawa, Yobe, and Kano killing hundreds and compounding vulnerabilities. Why has the situation worsened? Economic reforms under President Bola Tinubu, including fuel subsidy removal and naira devaluation, have intensified the cost-of-living crisis, while persistent banditry and herder-farmer clashes in the northwest and north-central regions destroy crops and livestock, pushing rural communities into desperation; rapid population growth to 400 million by 2050 strains resources further, with poor urban planning and ailing infrastructure amplifying flood risks. How can this be averted? The UN and partners urge immediate multi-sectoral action: scaling up cash transfers, enhancing agri-food systems for resilience, and addressing root causes like conflict and climate adaptation through government commitments, donor support, and local innovations; WFP’s David Stevenson emphasizes tackling northeast violence, while FAO’s Dominique Koffy Kouacou stresses durable solutions for agri-food systems to meet urgent needs and promote sustainability.

This crisis unfolds against a backdrop of broader humanitarian needs, with 33.1 million projected to face high acute food insecurity, including risks of gender-based violence and child separation in flood-hit areas. Social media echoes public despair, with users decrying underreported attacks and economic policies that hit the poor hardest, while reports of retired generals calling for a state of emergency on insecurity highlight interconnected threats. The government’s cash transfer resumption in February 2025 aims to aid 15 million families, but only 1.7 million benefited by late 2023, underscoring implementation gaps. As Nigeria navigates these pressures, experts warn that without holistic reforms—bolstering security, investing in climate-resilient agriculture, and stabilizing prices—the hunger wave could spiral into a full-blown disaster, eroding social cohesion and stalling development in Africa’s most populous nation. The Cadre Harmonisé, conducted in March and October across 26 states and the FCT, serves as a clarion call for unified action to safeguard lives and futures.