Hon. Adebola Odunsi warns that seven of ten sitting governors lost their Senate bids in 2023, a caution as more eye 2027 seats

Hon. Adebola Odunsi, a public affairs commentator writing from Odogbolu in Ogun State, has issued a pointed warning to Nigeria’s political class, cautioning that sitting governors who move to contest Senate seats without genuine grassroots support risk repeating the humbling defeats several of their colleagues suffered in 2023.

In a commentary shared this week, Odunsi noted that ten sitting governors contested Senate seats in the 2023 general election, yet only three succeeded.

Seven others, some of them men who had controlled their local governments for eight years as governor, lost their bids outright.

Among those who won were Dave Umahi of Ebonyi State, who claimed the Ebonyi South seat on the platform of the All Progressives Congress, Abubakar Bello of Niger State, who took Niger North, and Aminu Tambuwal of Sokoto State, who secured Sokoto South for the Peoples Democratic Party.

Umahi polled 28,378 votes to defeat Linus Okorie of the Labour Party, who scored 25,496, and Eleje of the All Progressives Grand Alliance, who managed 11,398. Bello polled 100,197 votes to win Niger North.

Tambuwal eventually emerged with 100,860 votes, defeating the incumbent senator Abdullahi Danbaba, who polled 95,884, in a supplementary poll.

The seven who fell short make for a longer and more sobering list.

Samuel Ortom of Benue State polled 106,882 votes in the Benue North West race, losing to Titus Zam of the All Progressives Congress, who scored 143,151.

Simon Lalong of Plateau State, then Director General of the APC Presidential Campaign Council, lost Plateau South to Bali Ninkap Napoleon of the PDP, who polled 148,844 against his 91,674.

Ben Ayade of Cross River State was defeated in his attempt to return to the Senate representing Cross River North, losing to the incumbent, Jarigbe Agom-Jarigbe, who polled 76,145 votes against Ayade’s 56,595.

Darius Ishaku of Taraba State lost Taraba South to David Jimkuta of the APC, who scored 85,415 votes to Ishaku’s 45,708.

Atiku Bagudu of Kebbi State, then chairman of the APC’s Progressive Governors’ Forum, was defeated in Kebbi Central by Adamu Aliero of the PDP, who polled 126,588 votes against his 92,389.

Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of Enugu State lost Enugu North to Okechukwu Ezea of the Labour Party, with the returning officer declaring Ezea the winner with 104,492 votes against Ugwuanyi’s 46,948. Okezie Ikpeazu of Abia State lost Abia South to Enyinnaya Abaribe of the All Progressives Grand Alliance, who polled 49,693 votes against Ikpeazu’s 28,422.

For Odunsi, the pattern points to a lesson many politicians have refused to absorb. Forcefully securing a party ticket, he argued, “is not equal to automatic winning.”

Even a governor’s home turf, he warned, can turn hostile once voters sense that a contest has been decided for them rather than by them.

He traced the common thread through shifting voter sentiment, changing party dynamics, and opposition candidates who simply organised better on the ground.

Where party primaries are widely seen as stage-managed, he suggested, rival factions tend to mobilise against the anointed candidate, eroding whatever hometown advantage that candidate once enjoyed.

The warning lands at a genuinely live moment. Nigeria heads into the 2027 general election with a fresh round of governors weighing Senate ambitions, and the imposition debate Odunsi describes has already resurfaced.

In Ogun State, Governor Dapo Abiodun’s perceived Senate ambition for Ogun East is stirring succession calculations within the APC, given that the seat is currently held by Senator Gbenga Daniel of the same party.

Elsewhere, Bauchi State Governor Bala Mohammed is widely believed to be weighing a return to the National Assembly, while Kwara State Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq is reported to be eyeing the Kwara Central seat currently held by Senator Saliu Mustapha.

Not everyone views the consensus arrangements now common in Nigerian party politics as a threat to democratic choice.

A party source, defending the practice, put it plainly: “The truth is no governor wants to leave office and sit idle.”

The Electoral Act 2026 permits parties to nominate candidates through either direct primaries or consensus, provided aspirants give their written consent for the latter. Supporters argue this offers a lawful, orderly route to succession rather than an imposition.

Critics disagree, and Odunsi’s commentary sits within that wider unease.

He is not alone in warning that consensus, when used to sideline serious rivals rather than reflect genuine agreement, breeds resentment that shows up at the ballot box regardless of a candidate’s incumbency.

His closing message was addressed as much to 2027 as to 2023. Watch out, he cautioned, because more will certainly lose. For a political class still leaning on the machinery of imposition, the seven names above may prove to be a warning rather than a footnote.