Nigeria produced an estimated 402.86 million barrels of crude oil valued at approximately ₦52.11tn between January and September 2026, based on monthly average production rates, prevailing crude oil prices and an exchange rate of ₦1,331 to the dollar.

The estimated value of the nine-month output stood at about $39.15bn before conversion to naira.

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Calculations based on data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria involved multiplying the country’s average daily crude oil production for each month by the number of days in that month.

The resulting volumes were then multiplied by the corresponding monthly prices of Bonny Light crude oil to estimate the dollar value.

The estimates cover crude oil production only and exclude condensate and natural gas.

The calculations put Nigeria’s crude oil output at 45.26 million barrels in January, 36.68 million barrels in February, 42.78 million barrels in March and 44.70 million barrels in April.

Production rose to 47.43 million barrels in May before reaching 46.80 million barrels in June, 46.81 million barrels in July, 46.50 million barrels in August and 45.90 million barrels in September.

The monthly figures totalled 402.86 million barrels, equivalent to approximately 403 million barrels.

January’s output was calculated using average daily production of 1.46 million barrels multiplied by 31 days. February’s 1.31 million barrels per day was multiplied by 28 days, while March’s daily average of 1.38 million barrels was multiplied by 31 days.

For the remaining months, the calculations used daily production averages of 1.49 million barrels in April, 1.53 million in May, 1.56 million in June, 1.51 million in July, 1.50 million in August and 1.53 million in September.

Each monthly average was multiplied by the corresponding number of calendar days.

The estimated dollar value was calculated using the monthly average prices of Bonny Light crude oil.

In January, 45.26 million barrels sold at an estimated $68.05 per barrel, giving an output value of about $3.08bn.

February’s 36.68 million barrels, priced at $72.33 per barrel, were valued at approximately $2.65bn.

In March, the estimated value rose to $4.54bn, based on production of 42.78 million barrels and an average price of $106.09 per barrel.

April recorded an estimated output value of $5.66bn, with 44.70 million barrels priced at $126.71 per barrel.

May’s 47.43 million barrels, at $112.63 per barrel, were valued at about $5.34bn.

The estimated value declined to $4.13bn in June, when 46.80 million barrels traded at $88.24 per barrel.

July’s output was valued at $3.97bn, based on 46.81 million barrels at $84.81 per barrel.

The value subsequently rose to approximately $4.40bn in August, with 46.50 million barrels priced at $94.64 per barrel, and $5.38bn in September, when 45.90 million barrels traded at $117.12 per barrel.

Together, the nine monthly estimates amounted to approximately $39.15bn.

Using an exchange rate of ₦1,331 to the dollar, the estimated $39.15367bn translates to approximately ₦52.11tn.

On a monthly basis, the estimated naira values were ₦4.10tn in January, ₦3.53tn in February, ₦6.04tn in March, ₦7.54tn in April, ₦7.11tn in May, ₦5.50tn in June, ₦5.28tn in July, ₦5.86tn in August and ₦7.16tn in September.

April recorded the highest estimated monthly value at $5.66bn, equivalent to about ₦7.54tn, while February had the lowest at $2.65bn, or approximately ₦3.53tn.

The figures represent the estimated gross value of crude oil produced by all operators during the period, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, international oil companies and indigenous producers.

They do not represent the actual revenue received by the Federal Government.

The calculations exclude production costs, royalties, taxes, crude allocations, domestic consumption, export volumes and other deductions that affect the amount ultimately realised by producers and government.

The estimated monthly price of Bonny Light crude rose from $68.05 per barrel in January to $72.33 in February.

Prices subsequently increased to $106.09 in March and peaked at $126.71 in April before easing to $112.63 in May and $88.24 in June.

The report attributed the sharp increase to the US-Iran crisis, which began on February 28, and the subsequent movements in global oil prices.

Prices fell after a reported ceasefire between Tehran and Washington, reaching $84.81 per barrel in July.

Bonny Light subsequently rose to $94.64 in August and $117.12 in September, amid reports that the ceasefire agreement had collapsed.

According to the report, the price increases created a potential windfall for Nigeria’s oil sector relative to the assumptions underpinning the 2026 Federal Government budget.

The budget assumptions include daily oil production of 1.8 million barrels, a benchmark crude oil price of $64.85 per barrel and an exchange rate of ₦1,400 to the dollar.

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However, the estimated gross value of production should not be treated as evidence of an equivalent increase in government receipts, which depend on actual sales, fiscal terms, costs and other revenue factors.