Despite Dangote refinery’s production, Nigeria imported 69% of its petrol between August 2024 and October 2025, NMDPRA data shows

Despite expanded refining capacity, Nigeria imported 69 per cent of the 21 billion litres of petrol it consumed between August 2024 and the first 10 days of October 2025, according to fresh data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).

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The report shows that Nigeria imported about 15.01 billion litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) during the 15-month period, while 6.67 billion litres, or 31 per cent, came from domestic refining largely from the Dangote Refinery, which began petrol production in September 2024.

The data, titled “Import vs Domestic Supply Performance (PMS Daily Average Supply – August 2024 to October 2025),” reveals gradual growth in local refining alongside a steady fall in import dependence.

Imported petrol averaged 44.6 million litres daily in August 2024, rising briefly to 54.3 million litres in September 2024 when the Dangote Refinery began local supply.

Imports then fell steadily — to 24.15 million litres per day in January 2025, 19.26 million litres in September 2025, and 15.11 million litres by October 2025.

Conversely, domestic output climbed from 6.43 million litres per day in September 2024 to 22.66 million litres in January 2025, before stabilising around 20 million litres daily in subsequent months.

By October 2025, Dangote’s production averaged 18.93 million litres per day, surpassing imports for the first time.

The total national supply peaked at 60.73 million litres per day in September 2024, but declined to 34.04 million litres per day by October 2025.

Analysts link the drop to rising pump prices following the deregulation of the petrol sector and reduced cross-border smuggling.

The NMDPRA acknowledged that the refinery has become a major player in Nigeria’s downstream sector, contributing an average of 20 million litres per day to local supply.

However, importers have accused Aliko Dangote of “stifling competition” through aggressive price cuts.

Dangote, in response, insisted that his refinery has enough stock to serve both local and export markets, boasting over 310 million litres of petrol in storage.

“Bring your tankers — we will load. Any number of trucks you bring, we’ll load them. We have more than 310 million litres in our tanks,” said Devakumar Edwin, Vice President of the Dangote Group.

In addition to domestic supply, the refinery has been exporting petrol, aviation fuel, and diesel to international markets.

In early 2025, Dangote confirmed sales of two cargoes of jet fuel to Saudi Aramco, and in June–July 2025, it reportedly exported about one million tonnes of PMS.

The NMDPRA’s Chief Executive, Farouk Ahmed, described the development as a turning point in Nigeria’s petroleum landscape.

“Without a shadow of doubt, the Dangote Refinery has changed the supply dynamics with an average daily contribution of up to 20 million litres,” Ahmed said.

Experts note that while imports still dominate Nigeria’s supply mix, the steady expansion of domestic refining signals a structural shift toward energy self-sufficiency.

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However, achieving full local dominance will depend on market pricing stability, fair competition, and consistent refinery operations across the country.