Nigeria has officially ceded its position as Africa’s largest importer of refined petroleum products to South Africa, a new report has confirmed

[dropcap]N[/dropcap]igeria has officially relinquished its long-held position as Africa’s largest importer of refined petroleum products, a significant shift directly attributed to the ramp-up of operations at the Dangote Petrochemical Refinery.

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New data from energy consultancy CITAC reveals that South Africa has now overtaken Nigeria as the continent’s biggest fuel importer, signaling a seismic change in Africa’s downstream oil market.

The Dangote Refinery, with a refining capacity of 650,000 barrels per day – the largest single-train refinery in the world – began large-scale production in early 2024.

Its rising output is already disrupting established trade flows across sub-Saharan Africa and reshaping the continent’s energy dynamics.

According to figures released by CITAC on Wednesday, May 28, 2025, Nigeria imported 3.1 million metric tonnes of refined petroleum products in the first quarter of 2025.

In stark contrast, South Africa imported 4.2 million tonnes over the same period, solidifying its new status as the continent’s largest fuel importer.

“Nigerian imports are dropping as a result of the continued operation of Dangote,” said Elitsa Georgieva, Executive Director at CITAC.

“Since the beginning of this year, South African imports have been consistently the highest in sub-Saharan Africa. Crude throughput across sub-Saharan African refineries rose by 77.8 per cent year-on-year in 2024, jumping from an average of 382,500 barrels per day in 2023 to 680,100 barrels per day in 2024. This leap was almost entirely driven by the Dangote plant.”

This development marks a significant milestone for Nigeria, which for decades paradoxically relied on imported fuel despite being Africa’s top crude oil producer.

The report further estimates that Nigeria’s total refined fuel imports for 2025 will fall to 6.4 million tonnes, less than half of South Africa’s projected 15.5 million tonnes.

Nigerian imports are dropping as a result of the continued operation of Dangote. Since the beginning of this year, South African imports have been consistently the highest in sub-Saharan Africa. This leap was almost entirely driven by the Dangote plant.

“The Nigerian market has undergone major product flow changes since mid-2023. The long-awaited 650 kb/d Dangote refinery near Lagos began operations in January 2024, steadily ramping up throughput and streaming secondary units throughout the year. Output from the Dangote refinery has displaced the bulk of international clean products imports in West Africa,” the report explained.

While Nigeria’s imports are on the decline, South Africa’s dependence on foreign fuel is deepening due to a sharp decline in its refining capacity.

Industrial accidents, aging infrastructure, and chronic underinvestment have forced the shutdown of several facilities since 2020.

Transnet SOC Ltd, South Africa’s state-owned logistics company, reports that imports now meet over 60 percent of national fuel demand.

The situation worsened in 2022 when the country’s largest refinery, Sapref, a joint venture between Shell Plc and BP Plc, was idled.

Analysts suggest that Nigeria’s reduced import dependency could significantly support the naira, alleviate pressure on foreign exchange reserves, and narrow trade deficits.

The shift also carries substantial fiscal implications for the government, which historically spent heavily on subsidizing imported fuel.

Meanwhile, Swiss-based oil trader Mocoh is undergoing a strategic overhaul as the Dangote Refinery reshapes fuel supply dynamics across West Africa, disrupting traditional trade routes and prompting a shift in business models.

Mocoh, which operated in Nigeria for nearly three decades, built its core business around supplying premium motor spirit (petrol) to Nigeria.

“In early 2025, we saw a paradigm shift,” said Olivier Lassagne, Mocoh’s new CEO, in an interview with Platts.

“We lost most of our petrol trade with NNPC, but that’s pushed us to grow beyond our traditional niche and reposition for the future.”

Mocoh has found new footing by partnering with Dangote to export surplus fuel to regional markets like Benin, Cameroon, and Burkina Faso.

However, competition is fierce, as Dangote has so far favored trading giants like Vitol, BP, and Trafigura for major offtake deals, while newer players such as Afreximbank-backed Atmin are vying to expand intra-African flows.

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“Dangote values flexibility and market pricing. They aren’t tying themselves down with exclusive partners,” Lassagne noted, adding that Mocoh is positioning itself as a nimble regional player.