NMDPRA fuel imports approved for Q3 2026 as Nigeria moves to prevent petrol and diesel shortages amid declining fuel stock levels

The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority on Tuesday approved fresh petrol and diesel import permits for the third quarter of 2026, a move aimed at preventing supply shortages as fuel inventories tighten and production challenges emerge at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Lagos.

The approvals, granted by the regulator on behalf of the Federal Government, cover the July to September period and were disclosed in a report published by global energy intelligence firm Argus Media.

The report cited regulatory and industry sources who said the permits were issued to major downstream operators to ensure adequate fuel availability across the country.

Under the latest NMDPRA Fuel Imports programme, domestic marketers including AA Rano, AYM Shafa, Bono Energy, Nipco, Matrix Energy and Pinnacle Oil received approvals to import Premium Motor Spirit, commonly known as petrol.

The same firms, except Nipco, were also granted permits to import Automotive Gas Oil, otherwise known as diesel.

According to the report, the fresh approvals follow an earlier round of petrol import permits issued in May, which covered approximately 720,000 metric tonnes of fuel.

A regulatory source quoted by Argus said many of the companies receiving the new approvals had participated in previous import programmes.

“These are some of the same ones that previously received the PMS permits,” the source said.

Sources cited in the report indicated that AA Rano and Matrix Energy each secured permits to import 180,000 metric tonnes of petrol. AYM Shafa was approved for 120,000 metric tonnes, while Pinnacle Oil received authorisation to import 150,000 metric tonnes.

For diesel, AYM Shafa obtained approval to import 60,000 metric tonnes, while Pinnacle Oil received a permit covering 45,000 metric tonnes.

Industry sources told Argus that the permits were issued after a delay from an earlier target date of June 15.

“The permits were issued to head off projected shortfalls in supply,” a regulatory source told the publication.

The source added that approvals were still being processed and that the final volume could exceed 800,000 metric tonnes of petrol, surpassing quantities approved under the second-quarter import programme.

The latest intervention comes amid growing concerns over fuel stock levels. Data referenced by Argus showed that Nigeria’s petrol stock sufficiency declined by 1.7 days to 16 days in May, while diesel stock sufficiency fell by eight days to 31 days during the same period.

Such reductions in inventory levels often trigger precautionary action by regulators seeking to prevent disruptions in supply and avoid scarcity across the country.

The report linked the tightening fuel market partly to lower gasoline production at the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Lekki.

According to figures cited by Argus, petrol production at the facility dropped by 16 per cent to 44.7 million litres per day. Diesel production, however, rose by four per cent to 24.5 million litres daily.

Market participants attributed the reduction in petrol output to maintenance work on the refinery’s Residual Fluid Catalytic Cracker, one of the facility’s key gasoline-producing units.

A source familiar with refinery operations reportedly described suggestions linking maintenance activities and increased exports of low-sulphur straight-run fuel oil as “partially correct” but declined to provide additional details.

The refinery did not respond to requests for comment, according to the report.

The decision to approve additional imports also comes as international fuel prices trend lower, potentially making imported products more attractive for marketers.

Argus reported that front-month Eurobob oxy swaps, a benchmark increasingly used in West African gasoline trading, averaged $946.25 per tonne in June, compared with $1,128.50 per tonne in May.

Offshore Lomé ship-to-ship diesel prices also declined sharply, averaging $1,093.50 per tonne in June against $1,409.25 per tonne a month earlier.

The lower pricing environment is expected to improve import economics and encourage marketers to supplement local supply where necessary.

Despite the availability of permits, however, analysts do not expect all approved volumes to be utilised.

Preliminary vessel-tracking data from Kpler cited by Argus suggests that independent marketers may import about 354,000 metric tonnes of petrol during the current quarter, considerably below the 720,000 metric tonnes authorised under the previous programme.

Industry sources attributed the gap partly to the timing of permit issuance, noting that marketers had limited time to execute import plans after approvals were granted midway through the quarter.

Meanwhile, Kpler data indicates that the Dangote refinery is expected to import approximately 257,000 metric tonnes of gasoline during the current quarter.

Although the refinery operates within a free zone and does not require import permits for inbound cargoes, regulatory approval remains necessary before imported products can be discharged into Nigeria’s domestic market.

The latest NMDPRA Fuel Imports approvals highlight the continued importance of imports in Nigeria’s energy supply chain, even as the country expands domestic refining capacity through major investments such as the Dangote refinery.

Since commencing commercial supply to the domestic market, the refinery has significantly reduced Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum products.

However, industry stakeholders maintain that strategic imports remain essential whenever local production is constrained by maintenance activities, operational challenges or demand pressures.

The regulator has consistently maintained that import permits are issued only when necessary to safeguard energy security, sustain adequate stock levels and ensure uninterrupted fuel supply nationwide.

The latest approvals reflect a broader effort to balance market stability with Nigeria’s long-term ambition of achieving greater self-sufficiency in refined petroleum products.