Security intelligence firm warns ISWAP’s attacks on aid routes and schools are deepening Nigeria’s humanitarian crisis despite intensified military operations

The SARI June security report has revealed that 792 people were killed in 882 security incidents across Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory in June 2026, highlighting a deteriorating security environment despite intensified military operations that eliminated 274 insurgents during the month.

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The findings are contained in SARI Global’s Nigeria Monthly Security Overview for June 2026, a report published on ReliefWeb, the humanitarian information platform managed by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).

The report paints a sobering picture of persistent insurgency, banditry, criminal violence and humanitarian disruption across the country.

According to the report, Borno State remained the country’s most violent state, recording 109 security incidents and 172 confirmed deaths, with much of the violence concentrated around the Lake Chad Basin, the Sambisa Forest corridor, Gwoza, Monguno, Baga, Cross Kauwa and Kukawa.

A major concern highlighted by SARI Global was the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP)’s evolving campaign to disrupt humanitarian operations in northern Borno.

The report identified the Monguno axis as Nigeria’s most critical humanitarian flashpoint after ISWAP fighters combined nighttime raids on humanitarian compounds with daytime attacks on aid convoys travelling along the Monguno to Gajiram road.

According to SARI Global, the strategy has significantly restricted humanitarian access to hundreds of thousands of internally displaced persons dependent on food assistance.

“The deliberate destruction of food cargo is a calculated tactic to intimidate commercial vendors, deter them from engaging with humanitarian actors, and restrict the flow of essential commodities to the garrison towns of Monguno, Cross Kauwa, Baga and Kukawa,” the report stated.

Among the month’s most significant incidents was the 24 June attack on the 20 Units Housing area in Monguno, where ISWAP fighters abducted an international non-governmental organisation worker and a local security guard during a night raid.

Days later, insurgents operating illegal vehicle checkpoints reportedly set ablaze two aid-contracted commercial trucks transporting relief supplies, following an earlier attack on humanitarian cargo on 18 June.

SARI Global said the coordinated assaults demonstrated detailed knowledge of humanitarian operations and were designed to make aid workers unsafe after dark while rendering supply routes hazardous during daylight hours.

The report also documented a sharp rise in violence during the first half of June.

It recorded 217 incidents during the opening week before the number climbed to 278 incidents between 8 and 14 June, the deadliest week of the month.

“June opened at an elevated baseline and escalated through its first half before settling into a violent plateau,” the report said, adding that the security forces managed to contain, but not reverse, the early surge in attacks.

Government-affiliated security forces initiated the highest number of operations, accounting for 375 of the 882 recorded incidents, reflecting sustained arrests, raids and law enforcement activities.

However, non-state armed groups remained the deadliest actors. Although linked to 224 incidents, they were responsible for 337 deaths, representing 42.5 per cent of all confirmed fatalities during the month.

Government forces accounted for 274 fatalities, while unknown actors were linked to 86 deaths, civilians to 64, criminal actors to 30, and political actors to one fatality.

SARI Global cautioned that a high tempo of security operations should not automatically be interpreted as an improving security environment.

“A busy security apparatus is not the same as an improving environment,” the report warned.

Beyond armed conflict, the report highlighted growing threats to humanitarian workers and educational institutions.

On 29 June, ISWAP fighters reportedly raided Government Day Secondary School, Lassa, in Askira/Uba Local Government Area of Borno State, abducting students and teachers in broad daylight.

SARI Global described the assault as both ideologically motivated and strategically calculated to attract international attention while exposing weaknesses in local security and early-warning systems.

“The failure to detect the group’s movement before the assault, and the absence of a rapid security response, reflect severe constraints in local surveillance, early-warning and community-alert mechanisms. Each successful abduction of this kind emboldens replication,” the report stated.

The report urged authorities and humanitarian organisations to treat schools located near insurgent strongholds as high-risk locations requiring enhanced security measures.

SARI Global also identified a growing threat from what it termed “beneficiary aggression”, citing a 5 June incident in Banki, Bama Local Government Area, where an aid worker was attacked during a food distribution exercise by an individual excluded from the beneficiaries’ list.

The report warned that worsening food insecurity during the lean season could increase tensions around humanitarian distributions in the coming months.

In the North-West, SARI Global recorded 67 insurgent-style ambushes and improvised explosive device attacks, including an IED explosion on the Bagega to Anka road in Zamfara State on 15 June.

Analysts said the spread of IED tactics beyond the North-East suggests increasing cooperation or tactical learning among armed groups operating across different regions.

Outside the main conflict zones, Lagos State recorded 40 incidents, Rivers State recorded 32, while Oyo State experienced 31 incidents, largely involving criminality, protests and road traffic emergencies.

The Federal Capital Territory recorded 36 incidents, most of them linked to civil unrest associated with preparations for the 2027 general election.

SARI Global identified Abuja as an emerging hotspot for politically driven demonstrations, warning of heightened tensions as electoral activities gather pace.

Looking ahead, the report projected that humanitarian conditions are likely to deteriorate further in July, with widening gaps between relief needs and response capacity as food insecurity deepens and insurgent attacks continue to disrupt aid supply chains.

Also read: Nigerian troops rescue 47 ISWAP captives in Borno

SARI Global is a United States-registered security intelligence and risk analysis firm that provides conflict monitoring, operational risk assessments and crisis management support to international non-governmental organisations, United Nations agencies, diplomatic missions and businesses operating in fragile environments.