Headline inflation fell to 15.43 per cent, but monthly food inflation jumped to 5.56 per cent as prices of key staples rose across several states

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased to 15.43 per cent in July 2026, but a sharp acceleration in monthly food inflation has raised fresh concerns about the pressure facing households despite the broader moderation in price growth.

Also read: Nigeria inflation falls to 15.43% as food prices rise

The National Bureau of Statistics disclosed this in its Consumer Price Index report released on Monday, August 17, showing that headline inflation declined by 0.48 percentage points from 15.91 per cent in June.

The latest Nigeria inflation figures present a mixed picture for consumers.

While the annual pace of price increases continued to slow, food prices rose considerably faster during the month, with food inflation climbing to 5.56 per cent month-on-month from 3.75 per cent in June.

That represents a 1.82 percentage-point increase and suggests that the easing in headline inflation has yet to translate into uniform relief at household level.

The NBS attributed the monthly food increase to higher average prices of several products, including crayfish, fresh pepper, onions, carrots, rice, water yam, tomatoes, garri, plantain, beef, eggs, guinea corn, ginger and plantain flour.

On a year-on-year basis, however, food inflation moderated substantially to 20.31 per cent in July, compared with 26.20 per cent in July 2025.

The statistics agency said, “The Food inflation rate in July 2026 was 20.31 per cent on a year-on-year basis and stood at 26.20 per cent in the same month of the preceding year (July 2025).

On a month-on-month basis, the Food inflation rate in July 2026 was 5.56 per cent, up by 1.82 percentage points from June 2026 (3.75 per cent).”

The contrast between the annual and monthly figures is significant. It indicates that although food prices were rising at a slower rate than they were a year earlier, the pace of increases accelerated sharply between June and July.

The trend was also reflected in the core inflation measure, which excludes volatile agricultural products and energy.

Core inflation fell to 14.97 per cent year-on-year in July, from 23.95 per cent in July 2025. On a monthly basis, core inflation slowed to 0.15 per cent from 1.66 per cent in June.

The NBS said the “All items less farm produce and energy” measure recorded a decline of 8.98 percentage points compared with the corresponding figure a year earlier.

Meanwhile, Nigeria’s Consumer Price Index rose to 145.3 points in July from 143.0 points in June, representing a 2.2-point increase.

Monthly headline inflation, however, slowed to 1.57 per cent from 1.66 per cent in June.

“This means that in July 2026, the rate of increase in the average price level was lower than the rate of increase in the average price level in June 2026,” the NBS stated.

The 12-month average headline inflation rate also fell sharply to 16.89 per cent in July, compared with 29.10 per cent in July 2025.

The figures extend a broader disinflationary trend recorded under Nigeria’s rebased Consumer Price Index.

The NBS has said the rebasing of the CPI was part of wider efforts to ensure that the inflation measure better reflects current consumption patterns.

Yet the regional figures show that the improvement is far from evenly distributed.

Adamawa recorded the highest annual food inflation at 51.36 per cent, followed by Katsina at 30.84 per cent and Zamfara at 30.65 per cent.

At the other end of the scale, Borno recorded negative 0.31 per cent annual food inflation, while Nasarawa and Kebbi recorded 6.88 per cent and 12.50 per cent respectively.

The month-on-month picture was similarly uneven. Adamawa recorded the highest monthly food inflation at 17.02 per cent, followed by Lagos at 13.48 per cent and Borno at 13.26 per cent.

Jigawa, Kebbi and Bauchi, meanwhile, recorded declines in monthly food prices.

The latest data arrive against a difficult cost-of-living backdrop.

A recent Reuters report found that many Nigerians continue to struggle with the cost of essentials despite signs of improving macroeconomic indicators, with food and fuel prices remaining major sources of household pressure.

The International Monetary Fund has also noted that domestic food prices in Nigeria can diverge significantly from international food price movements, with climate-related shocks, including droughts and flooding, contributing to persistent domestic food inflation.

That distinction is important for policymakers because lower headline inflation does not necessarily mean that consumers will immediately experience lower prices.

Rather, it means that prices are rising more slowly than before. Where the prices of essential food items continue to climb rapidly from one month to another, households can still feel substantial pressure even as the annual inflation rate declines.

The July figures therefore offer an encouraging signal on the broader inflation trajectory, particularly with core and monthly headline inflation slowing.

But the renewed acceleration in food prices presents a more challenging picture for households whose budgets are heavily exposed to the cost of basic staples.

For the Federal Government and monetary authorities, the task is now to ensure that the progress recorded in headline inflation is sustained while addressing the supply-side pressures keeping food prices elevated.

Also read: Nigeria’s food inflation surges to 17.52%

The latest report ultimately delivers a mixed message: Nigeria is making progress in slowing general price increases, but the relief remains uneven, and the sharp July increase in monthly food inflation shows that the battle over household purchasing power is far from over.