The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service has warned that 2026 is on course to become the world’s second-hottest year on record, as strengthening El Niño conditions combine with human-driven global warming to push temperatures towards unprecedented levels in its latest climate assessment published on Friday, November 6, 2026.
The climate monitoring agency said there remained a 20 per cent possibility that this year could equal or surpass 2024, currently the warmest year in recorded history, despite projections pointing to 2026 finishing as the second-hottest.
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Copernicus also warned that global temperatures were virtually certain to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the year, while the average temperature across the four-year period from 2023 to 2026 was also expected to surpass that threshold.
The latest assessment follows an exceptionally warm October, which recorded an average global surface air temperature 1.75°C above the estimated pre-industrial average between 1850 and 1900.
It was the warmest October recorded, according to Copernicus, and the third consecutive month in which global temperatures exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Samantha Burgess, Strategic Lead for Climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which operates the Copernicus service, said the latest figures reflected an increasingly concerning pattern of global warmth.
“October has continued the pattern of remarkable global warmth, with record global and surface ocean temperatures,” Burgess said.
She attributed part of the additional warming to the intensifying El Niño phenomenon, which is adding heat to an atmosphere already affected by greenhouse gas emissions and other human activities.
“An exceptionally strong El Niño is adding further heat to a climate already warmed by human activities,” she added.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon characterised by unusually warm sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
It influences atmospheric circulation and rainfall patterns, often increasing the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts and flooding in different parts of the world.
The World Meteorological Organisation had warned in September that the developing El Niño was expected to strengthen considerably towards the end of 2026, with its effects potentially extending into 2027.
According to the organisation, forecasts indicated an almost 100 per cent likelihood that the phenomenon would persist through February 2027, raising concerns about further disruptions to global weather patterns.
The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration also reported in October that a strong to very strong El Niño was likely to persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter, with sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding 4°C in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific.
Scientists have cautioned that although El Niño contributes to short-term temperature fluctuations, the underlying rise in global temperatures is primarily driven by human activities, particularly the burning of fossil fuels that releases greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
The warming trend has also been reflected in ocean temperatures.
Copernicus reported that October recorded the highest average sea surface temperature for the month across the extra-polar oceans, covering the region between 60 degrees north and 60 degrees south.
The development is particularly significant as countries prepare for the 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference, known as COP31, scheduled to take place in Antalya, Türkiye, from November 9 to 20.
The summit is expected to bring together governments, climate scientists, international organisations and civil society groups to discuss emissions reduction, climate financing, adaptation and other measures to address the climate crisis.
The latest temperature warning comes after a year marked by several extreme weather events, including deadly flooding in Nepal, intense heatwaves across Europe and major wildfires in Indonesia.
Although individual extreme weather events have different causes, scientists have established that rising global temperatures can increase the frequency or intensity of certain climate hazards.
The latest findings also renew attention on the 2015 Paris Agreement, under which countries committed to keeping the rise in global temperatures well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C.
However, scientists have clarified that recording temperatures above 1.5°C in an individual month or year does not, by itself, mean the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal has been breached.
The target is assessed over a longer period, generally decades, rather than through isolated monthly or annual readings.
Nevertheless, repeated temperature increases above the threshold highlight the growing urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
As the El Niño phenomenon continues to strengthen, climate experts expect its influence to remain a major factor in global temperature patterns into next year.
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The prospect of another exceptionally warm year reinforces the need for governments to accelerate climate action, strengthen early-warning systems and invest in measures that protect communities from the growing effects of extreme heat, droughts and flooding.
