President and Chief Executive of Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, the Federal Government of Nigeria, and the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) have become central figures in a growing dispute over fuel pricing after the Dangote Petroleum Refinery adopted a dollar-based pricing template, prompting marketers to scale back purchases while government officials work to resolve the standoff.

The refinery’s decision to adopt a dollar-based pricing model has introduced fresh uncertainty into Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market, with many marketers delaying large-volume purchases amid concerns that petrol prices could shift significantly in the coming days.

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While several marketers claimed fuel loading had effectively stalled at the Lekki refinery, a spokesperson for Dangote Petroleum Refinery firmly rejected those claims, insisting that loading operations were continuing.

National Publicity Secretary of IPMAN, Chinedu Ukadike, said marketers had become increasingly cautious because existing stock in tank farms was acquired at between N1,250 and N1,300 per litre, while the pricing structure for new crude supplies and imported petrol remains unclear.

“The issue is simple; marketers are not buying because they are trying to look at the market dynamics,” Ukadike said. “Everyone is just sceptical about loading products because when you load, you don’t know the next price, if it is going to reduce or go higher.”

The uncertainty has reduced the volume of petrol being lifted from depots rather than bringing distribution to a complete halt. Industry representatives warned that the prolonged uncertainty could disrupt supply if no agreement is reached on pricing and crude supply arrangements.

In south-west Nigeria, IPMAN Western Zone Chairman Oyewole Akanni said the refinery’s reported suspension of Premium Motor Spirit sales about four days earlier had forced marketers to rely on private depots, where ex-depot prices had climbed to between N1,200 and N1,220 per litre, excluding transportation costs.

Akanni stressed that there was no fuel scarcity, urging motorists not to engage in panic buying despite temporary closures at some filling stations.

Dangote Petroleum Refinery disputed reports that it had stopped loading trucks. A company spokesperson described the claims as “fake news” and maintained that the refinery remained operational, adding that marketers importing petrol were finding it increasingly difficult to compete as regional prices rose.

Behind the dispute lies a broader disagreement between the Federal Government and the refinery over crude oil supply and petroleum imports.

A senior government official familiar with the negotiations said the refinery was dissatisfied with the volume of crude supplied by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd.) and argued that only a limited share of those supplies was being sold in naira.

As a result, the refinery continued to purchase much of its crude in US dollars, contributing to the adoption of a dollar-based pricing model.

The official also said the refinery had expressed frustration over the continued issuance of petrol import licences to marketers despite its refining capacity.

However, the government maintained that imports remained necessary to preserve competition and avoid excessive market concentration.

“The government has been discussing this matter. Engagement continues,” the official said, adding that Nigeria could not allow any single operator to dictate market conditions.

The disagreement has also revived concerns over the balance between encouraging domestic refining and preserving an open market.

Three major oil marketers, Matrix Energy Group, AA Rano Nigeria, and AYM Shafa Holdings, have challenged the continued restriction of petroleum imports through legal action, arguing that they have invested billions of dollars in storage, logistics and distribution infrastructure.

Another significant development emerged from the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC), which reaffirmed that the naira remains Nigeria’s only lawful currency for domestic commercial transactions.

FCCPC Director of Corporate Affairs Ondaje Ijagwu also questioned why recent declines in international crude oil prices had not translated into lower retail petrol prices.

The commission said it would continue monitoring the market and could take enforcement action if credible evidence emerged of anti-competitive conduct or consumer exploitation.

The current dispute follows months of debate over the implementation of Nigeria’s market-driven fuel pricing system after the removal of petrol subsidies.

Since the Dangote Petroleum Refinery commenced large-scale production, policymakers have viewed domestic refining as a critical step towards reducing fuel imports and easing pressure on foreign exchange reserves.

However, negotiations over crude supply, pricing mechanisms and import policies have repeatedly tested that objective.

For consumers, the immediate impact remains uncertainty rather than outright shortages.

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The Federal Government continues discussions with the refinery while industry participants await greater clarity on pricing arrangements that could determine the direction of petrol prices in the weeks ahead.