Global advertising expenditure is forecast to rise 11.9 per cent to $1.34tn in 2026, despite continued pressure on household spending and heightened geopolitical uncertainty, according to the latest data from WARC Media.
The projected growth follows a 10.0 per cent increase in both 2024 and 2025, highlighting the resilience of the global advertising market as brands continue to increase investment in digital platforms, artificial intelligence and performance-driven channels.
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WARC Media attributed the acceleration partly to significant corporate investment in AI, alongside major global events including the Olympics, FIFA World Cup and US mid-term elections.
Suzy Young, Head of WARC Media Data, said the current advertising environment reflected a growing disconnect between corporate investment and consumer conditions.
“These are unusual times for advertising. Investment is accelerating even as many consumers face cost-of-living pressures and become more cautious with spending,” Young said.
She said the trend reflected an increasingly uneven global economy, with growth generated by the AI boom benefiting some companies, sectors and consumers more than others.
Social media leads digital growth
Social media, search and retail media are expected to account for 66.4 per cent of total global advertising expenditure in 2026, with their combined share projected to reach 70.0 per cent by 2028.
Social media is forecast to record the strongest growth among major advertising channels this year, rising 21.3 per cent to $394.6bn. WARC expects the channel to exceed $500bn in annual advertising investment by 2028.
Video-on-demand advertising is projected to grow 15.1 per cent to $48.4bn, while retail media is expected to increase 14.3 per cent to $202.1bn.
Search advertising is forecast to rise 14.2 per cent to $295.7bn, while digital out-of-home advertising is expected to grow 13.7 per cent to $21.7bn.
WARC said performance-focused channels continue to benefit from their ability to respond quickly to changing market conditions, particularly as economic and geopolitical uncertainty becomes more persistent.
Technology and electronics lead categories
Technology and electronics are expected to be the fastest-growing product category in advertising this year, with investment forecast to increase 20.7 per cent from 2025.
Travel and transport follows with projected growth of 19.3 per cent, while automotive advertising is expected to rise 17.8 per cent.
Social media alone is forecast to capture 40.2 per cent of advertising expenditure by technology and electronics companies in 2026.
AI reshapes advertising landscape
Artificial intelligence is emerging as a major driver of advertising investment, both through the rapid expansion of AI companies and through the use of AI tools across existing marketing operations.
WARC said established businesses are increasing spending as they compete in an increasingly crowded technology market, while AI is also being used to improve audience targeting, creative asset production and campaign optimisation.
The technology is also creating new advertising environments.
As generative search tools and AI assistants increasingly influence how consumers discover products and make purchasing decisions, advertising investment is expected to follow those changes, potentially reshaping the points at which consumers encounter brands.
Alphabet, Amazon and Meta dominate
The growing influence of AI and digital advertising is also reinforcing the dominance of major technology platforms.
Alphabet, Amazon and Meta are expected to collectively account for 59.7 per cent of global advertising expenditure outside China in 2026, representing approximately $659.6bn.
Their combined share is projected to increase to 61.5 per cent, equivalent to $804.1bn, by 2028.
Growth expected to moderate
WARC expects global advertising growth to slow in the next two years, although total spending will continue to rise.
Advertising expenditure is projected to increase by 8.4 per cent to $1.46tn in 2027, before growing another 7.9 per cent to $1.57tn in 2028.
That would make the global advertising market approximately 2.3 times larger than it was in 2019.
WARC’s data also points to significant differences in advertising intensity between markets. The United States is forecast to record advertising expenditure of $1,395 per person in 2026, compared with $935 in the UK and $850 in Austria.
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Emerging markets such as China, Brazil and India have considerably lower per-capita advertising expenditure, but their large consumer populations provide significant room for future growth as their advertising markets develop.
