Nigeria could record an estimated 31,400 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027 as an unusually strong El Niño weather pattern raises temperatures, according to a report by the Climate Impact Lab.

The projection places Nigeria among the countries expected to experience the highest number of additional heat-related deaths worldwide during the six-month period.

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Nearly half of the 66,800 additional deaths projected across the Sahel region are expected to occur in Nigeria, the report estimates.

Published on September 22, 2026, the report, titled *451,000 at Risk: Where Action Can Save Lives During the Super El Niño, forecasts that 451,000 additional heat-related deaths could occur globally between June 2026 and February 2027, compared with a normal year.

The researchers project that global land temperatures will reach 1.2 degrees Celsius above normal in the coming months, alongside 44 per cent more extremely hot days than would typically be expected.

The figures are projections, not confirmed deaths, and could change as weather forecasts are updated.

The Climate Impact Lab estimated that Nigeria could record 15,400 additional heat-related deaths between December 2026 and February 2027 alone.

Across the Sahel, the report projects 66,800 additional heat-related deaths from September 2026 to February 2027, with Nigeria accounting for an estimated 31,400.

Sudan is projected to record 17,500 additional deaths, followed by Niger with 10,000 and Chad with 8,000.

The researchers stressed that the estimates represent deaths above those expected in an average year, rather than the total number of deaths caused by heat.

Michael Greenstone, a co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and professor of economics at the University of Chicago, said the projections represented people going about their daily lives.

“We have long been able to predict the impacts of temperatures on crops, and now we can predict their impact on the worst outcome, death,” Greenstone said.

He added that the projected global toll represented parents, children, grandparents and neighbours whose lives could be lost as temperatures rise.

The report said governments and humanitarian organisations could use the projections to identify vulnerable populations and direct resources towards communities where interventions could save lives.

Recommended measures include heat warnings, public health outreach, cooling centres, hydration stations, workplace protections and increased healthcare capacity.

The researchers also highlighted early-warning systems and action plans that enable health officials to check on vulnerable residents, improve access to water and monitor symptoms associated with extreme heat.

“With these timelines in mind, there is time to reduce the numbers of lives lost by tens of thousands with targeted action,” the report stated.

The recommendations are particularly relevant to people whose work exposes them to high temperatures, as well as older people and others who may be more vulnerable to heat-related illness.

The report described the forecast temperatures as a warning of conditions that climate change could make more common in the coming decades.

“This is more than a hot summer, it’s a postcard from the future,” it stated.

Tamma Carleton, a co-author of the report and assistant professor at the University of California, Berkeley, said immediate interventions needed to be matched by long-term preparation.

“Increasing emergency response and better targeting our efforts can save many lives this year. But 20 years from now, once today’s extreme temperatures become the new normal, we don’t want to be in a constant state of emergency,” Carleton said.

She called for resources to be mobilised to develop and evaluate measures that would protect communities from future heat risks.

The researchers said their estimates were based on the relationship between temperature and excess mortality across 24,378 regions worldwide, combined with seasonal temperature forecasts.

They compared projected deaths with average figures for the corresponding months between 1996 and 2025.

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They cautioned that the estimates could change as forecasts are revised and warned that heat-related deaths could continue to rise beyond February 2027.