Ogun APC crisis deepens as Governor Abiodun defies party directives, raising tensions and sparking concerns over Tinubu’s 2027 political strength

Reporters were told on Friday that the Ogun APC Crisis has intensified, as fresh tensions emerge within the state chapter of the All Progressives Congress following allegations that Governor Dapo Abiodun is challenging the authority of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

Also read: Dapo Abiodun’s Ogun Ward Excos Dares APC NWC… You cannot Overrule us on Suspension

Insiders claim the governor mobilised selected ward executives, with some reportedly pressured into loyalty oaths, to release statements that contradict clear directives issued by the APC National Working Committee.

The committee had earlier ordered all groups in Ogun to maintain the status quo while an investigation into the festering dispute continues.

Despite the warning, the governor’s camp allegedly pushed ahead with public releases viewed by party loyalists as a direct affront to the national leadership.

Members within the APC argue that the tenure of both state and local executives expired months ago and that their continued presence in office is only possible because of the NWC’s goodwill, making their defiance even more striking.

Analysts say these structures should now operate strictly under national oversight until new congresses are conducted. For several weeks, the national leadership had refrained from intervening, with many interpreting this as an attempt to gauge the President’s position.

Their recent firm statement is seen as a sign that they now enjoy Tinubu’s full backing to act decisively.

Political observers warn that Governor Abiodun’s pursuit of an increasingly confrontational path may be a deliberate strategy to reshape the balance of power.

Some believe he may be considering overtures to opposition parties to unsettle the system, a potentially explosive move that could weaken Tinubu’s political hold ahead of the 2027 general elections.

The stakes in Ogun are particularly high. The state remains the most cohesive APC stronghold in the Southwest, home to political heavyweights such as Aremo Olusegun Osoba, Gbenga Daniel, Ibikunle Amosun, and Governor Abiodun himself.

Their collective presence makes Ogun the only state in the region that can reliably deliver overwhelming support for Tinubu in 2027.

Ogun’s political weight also influences developments in Lagos, Oyo, and Osun, owing to longstanding ties and geographical proximity.

Analysts fear that any fragmentation could disrupt Tinubu’s strategic vote tally in the region.

The recent Obidient movement in Lagos, Makinde’s tightening grip on the PDP in Oyo, and the volatile political undercurrents in Osun all contribute to growing uncertainty.

With Ondo and Ekiti offering little electoral cushioning in their current climates, Ogun stands as the APC’s most dependable firewall in the Southwest.

Any crack in its structure could send tremors across neighbouring states and complicate the President’s political arithmetic ahead of 2027.

For Abiodun to openly challenge directives believed to carry Tinubu’s approval suggests he may be ready to embark on a spoiler route, beginning with a bold rejection of national instructions.

Also read: New Ijebu-Remo State Agitation Intensifies, Stakeholders Demand Governor Dapo Abiodun’s Public Position

What unfolds in the coming weeks could ultimately determine not just the future of the Ogun APC but also the broader political landscape leading to the next general election.