The World Bank has raised its forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth in 2026 to 4.3 per cent, citing improved macroeconomic stability, stronger investor confidence and a gradual recovery in private investment.
The projection was contained in the World Bank’s October 2026 Africa Economic Update, which also forecasts Nigeria’s economy to grow by 4.4 per cent annually in 2027 and 2028, compared with an estimated 4.0 per cent growth in 2025.
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The bank said Nigeria is among several African economies whose growth outlooks have been revised upwards as reforms and improved economic management begin to support recovery.
Zambia, Ethiopia and Angola were also identified among countries receiving upward revisions to their growth forecasts.
The World Bank’s latest projection comes after data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that Nigeria’s real gross domestic product grew by 4.43 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026.
Across sub-Saharan Africa, the World Bank raised its 2026 growth forecast to 4.3 per cent, from the 4.1 per cent projected in April.
Andrew Dabalen, the World Bank’s Chief Economist for Africa, said the region had remained relatively resilient despite a difficult global environment, including higher energy prices linked to the conflict involving Iran.
However, the World Bank warned that stronger headline growth may not immediately translate into significant improvements in living standards.
It said income per person was increasing more slowly than overall economic output, limiting the impact of growth on poverty reduction across the region.
For Nigeria, the bank said economic growth remained insufficient to generate enough productive jobs, while high fuel prices linked to instability in the Middle East continued to place additional pressure on low-income households.
The World Bank said Nigeria would need to sustain its reform programme and attract greater private investment to convert macroeconomic stability into broader improvements in living standards.
It also highlighted the need for better infrastructure, stronger skills development and higher productivity, while urging African economies to harness artificial intelligence and digital technologies to support productivity and job creation.
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The latest forecast therefore presents a more positive outlook for Nigeria’s economy, but the World Bank’s warning underscores the challenge of ensuring that higher GDP growth translates into jobs, incomes and improved welfare for households.
