Nigeria crude oil production drop to 1.31mbpd in February widens OPEC quota gap and worsens crude supply shortages for domestic refineries

Nigeria’s crude oil production declined to 1.31 million barrels per day in February 2026, deepening supply pressures on domestic refineries and widening the country’s gap with its Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries production target.

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The Nigeria crude oil production drop was disclosed in the latest Monthly Oil Market Report released by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which showed that output fell from 1.459 million barrels per day in January to 1.314 million barrels per day in February.

The figures represent a month on month decline of 146,000 barrels per day, leaving Nigeria below its 1.5 million barrels per day OPEC quota for the seventh consecutive report.

The development has raised concerns not only about the country’s export revenue but also about the availability of crude oil for domestic refineries struggling to secure feedstock for their operations.

Industry sources say the Nigeria crude oil production drop is already affecting supply to major refining projects, particularly the 650,000 barrels per day Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which has repeatedly flagged constraints in accessing sufficient domestic crude.

Officials familiar with the matter disclosed that the Federal Government, through Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Limited), has begun sourcing crude oil through international traders to maintain supply to the refinery.

“Leveraging our global crude trading network, we are sourcing third party crude for the refinery at prices that are competitive with prevailing international market rates,” a senior NNPC official said on condition of anonymity because he was not authorised to speak publicly.

The official added that NNPC remains committed to supporting domestic refining despite temporary supply challenges.

“As the national oil company entrusted with safeguarding Nigeria’s energy security, NNPC Limited remains fully committed to supporting domestic refining, including the Dangote Petroleum Refinery,” the official said.

The refinery had earlier disclosed that it receives only five cargoes of crude per month from NNPC, far below the 13 cargoes required under the naira for crude arrangement.

According to the refinery, the cargoes received from NNPC are priced at prevailing international market rates with an added premium and are insufficient to sustain local supply obligations.

The new figures underscore Nigeria’s persistent struggle to meet its OPEC production allocation. Although output rose slightly in January 2026, the recovery proved short lived as production slipped again in February.

Data from Nigeria’s Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission had earlier indicated weakening production trends toward the end of 2025, when output dropped from 1.436 million barrels per day in November to 1.422 million barrels per day in December, before a modest rebound in January.

In 2025, Nigeria fell short of its OPEC quota in nine months, exceeding the target only in January, June and July.

Production started the year strongly at 1.54 million barrels per day in January 2025, surpassing the quota by about 38,700 barrels per day, but slipped below the target the following month and remained volatile throughout the year.

Despite these challenges, regulators remain optimistic that production will recover.

The new Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, recently outlined plans to significantly increase Nigeria’s crude output.

According to the commission, the strategy will focus on production optimisation, improved regulatory efficiency and sustainable operations within the upstream sector.

Eyesan said the vision aligns with the economic agenda of President Bola Tinubu, which targets raising Nigeria’s oil production to 2 million barrels per day by 2027 and 3 million barrels per day by 2030.

The regulator added that efforts will focus on recovering shut in volumes, reducing operational losses and accelerating time to first oil from new projects without imposing additional regulatory burdens on operators.

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Analysts say achieving those targets will require decisive action to curb oil theft, improve infrastructure reliability and stabilise production from existing fields.