Tinubu stock market rally drives a 348% surge in Nigerian equities over three years, making the NGX one of the world’s top-performing exchanges

Nigeria’s stock market has recorded its strongest three-year performance under any civilian administration since the country’s return to democracy in 1999, with investors adding trillions of naira in value amid sweeping economic reforms introduced by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

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The rally began almost immediately after Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s inauguration on May 29, 2023.

On the following trading day, investors flooded the Nigerian Exchange with buy orders, driving stocks up by 5.23 per cent in a single session and adding approximately N1.5 trillion to market capitalisation.

Three years later, the momentum remains remarkably strong.

As of May 26, 2026, the Nigerian Exchange All-Share Index stood at 249,738.8 points, while total market capitalisation reached N160.09 trillion.

The figures represent a 348 per cent increase from the 55,769.28 points and N30.38 trillion market value recorded when the administration took office.

The data highlights a sustained upward trajectory across successive years.

The market closed 2023 with a 45.9 per cent gain, one of the strongest annual performances in the exchange’s history.

Momentum continued into 2024, when Nigerian equities briefly emerged as the world’s best-performing stock market during the first weeks of January before ending the year with a 37.65 per cent return.

The rally accelerated further in 2025 as the All-Share Index closed at a record 155,613.03 points, delivering a 51.19 per cent annual return.

Analysts noted that the performance placed Nigeria among the best-performing emerging and frontier market exchanges globally.

In 2026, the upward trend has persisted. By May 25, the index had climbed to 251,125 points, while market capitalisation reached N160.9 trillion, reflecting year-to-date returns exceeding 61 per cent.

Chairman of the Nigerian Exchange Group, Umaru Kwairanga, described the scale of growth at the Africa Capital Forum in London earlier this year, noting that trading volumes and transaction values had also increased significantly alongside rising valuations.

Market analysts attribute much of the Tinubu Stock Market Rally to investor expectations of a more market-oriented economic policy framework.

According to Tajudeen Olayinka, bullish sentiment began building before the 2023 election as investors anticipated that the leading presidential candidates would pursue private-sector-driven economic policies.

“The market was forward-looking,” Olayinka said, explaining that investors began pricing in expected reforms long before the inauguration.

He argued that the administration’s emphasis on private sector participation distinguished it from previous governments and encouraged stronger investor confidence.

Analysts have identified several key reforms as major drivers of market performance, including the removal of fuel subsidies, foreign exchange liberalisation and monetary policy adjustments implemented by the Central Bank of Nigeria.

Economic indicators have also shown signs of improvement. International institutions, including the International Monetary Fund, reported stronger economic growth, while ratings agencies upgraded Nigeria’s credit outlook in 2025.

Despite the impressive market gains, experts caution that financial market performance tells only part of the country’s economic story.

Blakey Okwudili Ijezie said many Nigerians continue to face severe economic pressures resulting from inflation, rising energy costs and broader cost-of-living challenges.

“Markets often tell only one side of a nation’s story,” Ijezie said, noting that soaring asset values have not necessarily translated into improved living standards for many households.

The contrast has created what economists describe as a paradox of confidence and hardship, where investors benefit from rising equity prices while lower-income households struggle with the effects of economic adjustment measures.

Both analysts agreed that sustaining the market’s exceptional performance will require deeper structural reforms capable of generating broader economic benefits.

They argued that future policy efforts should focus on infrastructure development, manufacturing expansion, agricultural productivity, reliable electricity supply and improved security conditions.

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According to the analysts, the long-term success of the Tinubu Stock Market Rally will ultimately be judged not only by record-breaking gains on the trading floor but also by whether economic reforms translate into stronger productivity, job creation and improved quality of life for ordinary Nigerians.