NMDPRA data shows domestic petrol receipts fell 21% in July while imports rose 9%, signalling renewed pressure on Nigeria’s refining transition

Nigeria’s petrol imports gained ground in July 2026 as domestic refinery supplies weakened, offering a sobering reminder that the country’s transition from imported fuel to local refining remains vulnerable to fluctuations in refinery output and crude availability.

Also read: N90 fuel relief: Dangote refinery reshapes petrol prices

The latest monthly performance data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority showed that total Premium Motor Spirit receipts fell by 10 per cent from 50.6 million litres per day in June to 45.5 million litres per day in July.

Domestic supplies accounted for most of the decline, dropping by 21 per cent from 32.5 million litres to 25.8 million litres daily, while imports rose by nine per cent from 18.1 million litres to 19.7 million litres per day. (Leadership News)

The figures mark another shift in the balance between locally refined petrol and imported products, coming just one month after imports surged by 207 per cent in June as domestic supplies fell sharply.

In June, total petrol receipts actually increased to 50.6 million litres daily because the increase in imports more than offset the decline in local supply. (TheCable)

July therefore extended a trend that has become increasingly important to Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market.

Local refineries remain the larger source of petrol, but their declining contribution has allowed foreign supplies to regain ground.

The change is particularly significant because Nigeria entered 2026 with domestic refineries supplying the majority of its petrol.

In January, domestic PMS receipts averaged 40.1 million litres per day, compared with 24.8 million litres from imports. Imports subsequently fell sharply before beginning to rise again as local supplies weakened. (Vanguard News)

The latest figures also point to the importance of crude availability. Crude receipts by domestic refineries declined by eight per cent, from 632,000 barrels per day in June to 585,000 barrels per day in July.

That reduction coincided with the 21 per cent fall in domestic petrol receipts, although crude availability alone does not explain refinery output.

Operational performance, product yields, maintenance, evacuation arrangements and commercial decisions can also affect how much petrol ultimately reaches the domestic market.

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery remained a major force in the market during July.

The refinery recorded average capacity utilisation of about 71.09 per cent and produced approximately 25.9 million litres of petrol per day, according to reporting based on the NMDPRA figures. (Leadership News)

The refinery’s petrol output was almost identical to the 25.8 million litres per day recorded as total domestic PMS receipts, underlining its growing importance to Nigeria’s fuel supply system.

That position represents a remarkable change from the situation that prevailed for years, when Nigeria relied overwhelmingly on imported refined products despite its status as a major crude oil producer.

Yet the July data also demonstrates the fragility of that transition.

When local supply falls, imports remain available to fill the gap, meaning the country has not yet reached a position where domestic refining can consistently insulate consumers from external supply pressures.

The June experience provided an early warning. Domestic PMS receipts dropped from 41.5 million litres per day in May to 32.5 million litres in June, even though crude receipts at local refineries increased by about 9.3 per cent.

At the same time, petrol imports jumped from 5.9 million litres to 18.1 million litres daily. (TheCable)

July’s figures suggest that the pressure was not immediately reversed.

Petrol consumption, however, also weakened considerably. Volumes trucked out into the domestic market fell by 25 per cent, from 47.4 million litres per day in June to 35.7 million litres in July. (Leadership News)

The decline in consumption helped improve petrol stock sufficiency from 19.7 days in June to 22.4 days in July.

Despite the improvement, the stock position remained below the 30-day level that the regulator has previously identified as a benchmark for adequate supply cover. (Leadership News)

The diesel market presented a different picture.

Automotive Gas Oil receipts increased by 46 per cent from 16.2 million litres per day in June to 23.6 million litres in July.

Domestic diesel supply, however, edged down from 16.2 million litres to 15.7 million litres daily, while imports returned at 7.9 million litres per day after none was recorded in June.

Diesel consumption fell from 16 million litres per day to 14.7 million litres, while stock sufficiency rose from 37.1 days to 46.5 days. (Leadership News)

The cooking gas market offered a more encouraging picture for domestic production.

Total LPG receipts rose from 5.1 kilotonnes per day in June to 5.3 kilotonnes in July. Domestic LPG supply increased by 22 per cent to 4.4 kilotonnes daily, while imports fell by 40 per cent to 0.9 kilotonnes.

LPG consumption also increased by seven per cent to 4.4 kilotonnes per day, suggesting that domestic supply was strengthening at a time when petrol and diesel markets were becoming more reliant on foreign products.

Domestic gas supply, meanwhile, declined by eight per cent from 5.116 billion cubic feet per day in June to 4.723 billion cubic feet per day in July.

Aviation Turbine Kerosene receipts also fell from 2.5 million litres to 1.9 million litres per day, while consumption dropped from 2.9 million litres to 1.7 million litres.

The July figures leave Nigeria with a mixed downstream picture.

The country now has significantly greater domestic refining capacity than it had before the emergence of the Dangote refinery, but the supply chain still requires imports whenever local production falls short.

The development also comes against the backdrop of efforts to revive Nigeria’s government-owned refineries.

The June NMDPRA data showed that the Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna refineries remained shut during that month, while smaller modular refineries continued to contribute mainly to diesel supply. (TheCable)

For the government, the challenge is therefore no longer simply to build refining capacity.

It is to ensure that available capacity operates consistently, receives sufficient crude, produces the products the domestic market requires and can move those products efficiently into the market.

For consumers and businesses, the distinction matters because higher domestic refining capacity does not automatically guarantee stable local supply.

The resurgence in Nigeria’s petrol imports is consequently less a rejection of domestic refining than a reminder of the distance still to travel.

Also read: Petrol price battle: Abuja drivers choose cheaper filling stations

The country’s refining revolution is gathering strength, but July’s figures show that it has not yet become sufficiently resilient to prevent imported petrol from returning whenever local supplies weaken.