There is a dangerous political delusion taking hold in Nigeria ahead of the 2027 presidential election: the belief that because millions of Nigerians are unhappy with the government, the opposition will automatically defeat President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
That assumption could prove to be one of the opposition’s biggest mistakes. There is another narrative that has become almost unquestionable in some political circles: that the opposition actually won the 2023 presidential election and that its victory was stolen.
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I do not subscribe to that narrative, because the conclusions are baseless without empirical data, unsubstantiated and unfounded.
Let me state my position clearly. I am not an APC supporter, nor am I a supporter of any political party in Nigeria. My position is based on political realities and my commitment to good governance, culture change, ethical transformation and a better Nigeria.
I believe Nigerians must learn to distinguish between what we wish had happened and what actually happened. Because as the saying goes “if wishes were horses baggers will ride all day”.
THE 2023 ELECTION: POLITICAL MATHEMATICS MATTERED
The 2023 presidential election was fundamentally different from the elections that preceded it because Nigeria’s traditional two-party political contest was disrupted by the emergence of Peter Obi and the Labor Party as a major electoral force.
Before Peter Obi left the PDP, the presidential contest was largely expected to be between the PDP and APC. Then the equation changed.
Peter Obi left the PDP and joined the Labor Party. His candidacy captured the imagination of millions of Nigerians, particularly young people and voters who wanted a fundamental change in the political system.
But there was an important consequence that many people appear unwilling to acknowledge: The opposition vote was divided.
A substantial portion of the electorate that might otherwise have supported the PDP moved toward Labor. This move was a game changer for the political and electoral landscape.
It transformed what could have been essentially a two-way contest into a three-way presidential election. This was not a minor development. It changed the mathematical calculus of the election.
The APC entered the election as the incumbent governing party, with the enormous political advantages that come with incumbency and an established national political structure.
The PDP had its own extensive national structure, but it was weakened by internal divisions and the emergence of the Labor Party.
The Labor Party, meanwhile, generated enormous enthusiasm but did not possess the national political structure of either the APC or PDP.
The electoral outcome was predictable from a political-mathematical standpoint. The opposition was divided. The APC was sufficiently consolidated. Consequently, the APC won.
That conclusion does not require anyone to be an APC supporter. It requires only an honest examination of the political circumstances surrounding the election.
WAS THE 2023 ELECTION PERFECT?
An unbiased and responsible review of the 2023 presidential elections will acknowledge that it was not perfect. Frankly, there are no perfect elections anywhere in the world.
There were controversies, alleged irregularities and unverified claims of record manipulation during the election.
But we must distinguish between two different arguments. The first is that the election contained irregularities. The second is that those irregularities were sufficient to change the final outcome.
The first proposition is not particularly controversial. The second requires credible evidence to substantiate the claims made.
An election does not become automatically invalid simply because irregularities occurred. Elections around the world experience administrative failures, logistical problems, disputes, allegations of malpractice and other imperfections.
The relevant question is whether those problems were sufficient to change the outcome. That is where political argument must give way to evidence.
The more important lesson from 2023, therefore, is not that somebody “stole” an election that was already won.
The more important lesson is that a divided opposition made it easier for the incumbent party to win. And that lesson is extremely relevant to 2027.
TINUBU’S BIGGEST ADVANTAGE MAY BE THE OPPOSITION
Let us be brutally honest. President Tinubu’s administration has significant economic and political challenges. Inflation, rising cost of living, unemployment, insecurity, hardship and declining purchasing power have created genuine pain for millions of Nigerians.
The government’s economic reforms may have been motivated by legitimate concerns about the sustainability of Nigeria’s economy.
But good intentions do not exempt a government from performance evaluation. Government must ultimately be judged by results.
If Nigerians were voting exclusively on economic performance, the APC would have plenty to worry about.
But elections are not mathematics based solely on economic indicators. They are political contests. And politics is about organization, structure, messaging, coalition-building, voter mobilization and the ability to convert public sentiment into votes. This is where the opposition is making a potentially catastrophic mistake.
The opposition appears to believe that dissatisfaction with Tinubu is equivalent to support for the opposition.
It is not. Millions of Nigerians can be unhappy with the APC and still refuse to vote for an opposition party. Millions can complain about the economy and still have no confidence in the alternative. Millions can criticize Tinubu and still ask:
“Who exactly are you bringing to replace him?”
That is the question the opposition has yet to answer convincingly.
SOCIAL MEDIA IS NOT THE BALLOT BOX
One of the greatest political illusions of modern Nigeria is the belief that social-media popularity represents electoral strength. It does not. A politician can dominate Facebook, X, Tik-Tok or YouTube and still lose an election. Why? Because elections are not won by likes, reposts, hashtags, viral videos, but are won by voters going to the polls and making choices known.
They are won by organizing voters geographically from ward level, communities to their polling units by having a ground game that actively engages local leaders, traditional institutions, religious institutions, professional associations, youth organizations and community networks to ensure they deliver their votes. The party that understands this reality will have an enormous advantage.
The opposition cannot spend the next year fighting political battles on the internet while the APC builds and maintains political structures across the country.
The internet can amplify a political movement. It cannot substitute for a political organization.
THREE THINGS THE OPPOSITION MUST DO
If the opposition genuinely wants to defeat the APC in 2027, it must act now.
- CONSOLIDATE
The opposition parties need to stop pretending that each one can independently defeat the APC. PDP, Labor, ADC and other opposition forces must seriously consider forming a genuine political coalition or adopting a common platform.
The objective cannot simply be “anything but Tinubu.”
That is not enough. Nigeria needs an alternative government, not merely an anti-Tinubu movement.
The coalition must develop a credible economic, security, educational, industrial and governance agenda. It must tell Nigerians exactly what it intends to do differently.
- PRESENT ONE CANDIDATE
This may be the most important issue of all. The opposition cannot repeat 2023. If multiple opposition candidates enter the presidential race and divide the anti-APC vote again, they may once again hand the election to the incumbent.
One presidential candidate.
One national platform.
One coherent message.
One campaign structure.
One political strategy.
That is the only realistic pathway toward transforming widespread dissatisfaction into an electoral majority.
The process of choosing that candidate must not become another ethnic or regional contest. Nigeria needs a candidate who can build a national coalition.
A candidate who can win in the North.
A candidate who can win in the South.
A candidate who can appeal to Christians and Muslims.
A candidate who can appeal to young and old.
A candidate who can convince Nigerians that the alternative government will be competent, ethical and capable.
- TAKE THE CAMPAIGN TO THE STREETS
The opposition must get off the internet.
Go to the communities.
Go to the wards.
Go to the villages.
Go to the markets.
Go to the universities.
Go to the workplaces.
Talk to farmers.
Talk to traders.
Talk to artisans.
Talk to young people.
Talk to women.
Talk to professionals.
Talk to people who have never posted a political message on social media.
Most importantly, listen to them. A political party cannot build a national movement by speaking only to people who already agree with it. It must persuade people who are undecided. That is how elections are won.
STOP BLAMING THE REFEREE
There is a deeper cultural problem that Nigeria must confront.
We have developed an extraordinary culture of avoiding responsibility. A student fails an examination and blames the teacher.
A football team loses and blames the referee.
A driver causes an accident and blames the devil.
A politician loses an election and immediately claims that the election was stolen.
Sometimes those accusations are justified.
But not always.
Sometimes we simply failed.
Sometimes we were not prepared.
Sometimes our opponent was better organized.
Sometimes our strategy was poor.
Sometimes our candidate was not popular enough.
Sometimes we did not have enough votes.
There is nothing undignified about acknowledging defeat.
In fact, the ability to honestly analyze failure is one of the foundations of ethical leadership.
Nigeria cannot build a culture of accountability while politicians refuse to accept responsibility for their own strategic failures.
If the opposition loses in 2027, it should not automatically blame INEC, the APC, the judiciary, technology, vote buying or electoral manipulation.
It should first ask:
Did we do everything necessary to win?
Did we have the structure?
Did we mobilize the voters?
Did we have one candidate?
Did we have a credible message?
Did we build a national coalition?
Did we protect our votes?
Did we understand the political terrain?
Did we actually convince undecided voters?
If the answer to these questions is no, then perhaps the problem was not simply the election.
Perhaps the problem was the opposition.
2027 IS NOT YET A FOREGONE CONCLUSION
Let me be clear: I am not predicting that President Tinubu will certainly win the 2027 election.
No responsible political analyst should make that claim at this stage.
Elections can change dramatically.
Political alliances can collapse.
New movements can emerge.
Economic conditions can change.
A powerful opposition coalition can alter the entire political equation.
But based on the political structure that exists today, the APC has a significant advantage.
And if the opposition continues to operate as it did in 2023, fragmented, internally divided and without a single national candidate, it could lose again.
Not necessarily because Tinubu’s government has performed exceptionally well. Not necessarily because Nigerians are satisfied.
But because the alternative has failed to organize itself sufficiently to take power. That is the uncomfortable truth many opposition politicians and the supporters do not want to hear.
THE FALSE PROPHETS ARE COMING
As 2027 approaches, Nigerians should expect a flood of political predictions. Some will tell you that the opposition has already won. Some will tell you that a particular candidate is “unstoppable.”
Those in the faith arena proclaim from the roof top that God has revealed the winner to them and that a candidate in the opposition rank or the incumbent president is the one chosen by God.
Others will interpret social-media trends as evidence of an inevitable electoral victory.
Some will publish elaborate electoral maps based on nothing more than wishful thinking. Many will blame every political setback on conspiracy.
Nigerians must be careful.
Political prophecy is not political strategy.
A viral video is not an election.
A poll is not an election.
A political rally is not an election.
A crowd is not an election.
An angry population is not automatically an opposition electorate.
The only thing that ultimately matters is whether a political organization can convert public sentiment into votes.
NIGERIA NEEDS A COMPETENT OPPOSITION
I want the opposition to compete, not because I support any particular political party, but because democracy requires a credible alternative.
A healthy democracy needs a government that knows it can be challenged.
It needs an opposition that can scrutinize government policies.
It needs political parties that can present alternative economic policies.
It needs leaders who can accept responsibility.
It needs citizens who can distinguish facts from political propaganda.
Most importantly, Nigeria needs a political culture in which elections are contests of ideas, competence and character rather than ethnic calculations, religious mobilization and personality cults.
The opposition still has time.
But it must wake up.
Stop fighting one another.
Stop living on social media.
Stop waiting for the APC to collapse.
Stop assuming economic hardship automatically translates into opposition votes.
Stop telling Nigerians that you already won an election you did not win.
Stop blaming everyone else.
Organize. Consolidate. Choose one candidate. Build a national coalition. Develop a credible alternative agenda. Go to the grassroots. Mobilize voters. Protect the votes.
Then compete.
If the opposition does that and still loses, it will at least have earned the right to demand a serious examination of the electoral process.
But if it refuses to do the work and loses again, Nigerians should not be surprised.
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The APC may win, not because it is unbeatable, but because its opponents were unwilling or unable to become a credible alternative. That would be the greatest tragedy of all. Because Nigeria does not merely need a new government.
Nigeria needs a better political culture.
And that culture change must begin with accepting one simple principle:
If you want to win, prepare to win.
Anything less is political delusion.
