Nigeria’s alarming condom shortage has raised fears of a potential HIV surge as experts warn the 55 per cent decline may undermine vital prevention efforts

Senior physicians have warned that Nigeria risks a rise in new HIV and other sexually transmitted infections following a dramatic 55 per cent decline in condom distribution nationwide.

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The concerning drop, highlighted in a new UNAIDS report, has intensified debate over the country’s fragile sexual health infrastructure and its ability to prevent avoidable infections. Experts say the condom shortage could prove devastating if urgent action is not taken.

UNAIDS disclosed the figures during the launch of its 2025 World AIDS Day report, which cautioned that a failure to restore prevention efforts could result in an additional 3.3 million new HIV infections between 2025 and 2030.

With around two million Nigerians already living with HIV, the agency warned that the disruption to condom access represents a severe threat to public health.

Nigeria’s HIV prevalence currently stands at 1.3 per cent, according to the National Agency for the Control of AIDS.

Yet recent funding pauses by the United States have already hindered access to essential medicines and prevention services, a situation experts fear could worsen in the face of the condom shortage.

Infectious diseases epidemiologist Professor Lawrence Ogbonnaya said Nigeria’s widespread risky sexual behaviour could heighten vulnerability to infection.

He noted that condoms, while not infallible, remain one of the most practical tools for preventing HIV and other sexually transmitted infections.

He warned that reduced access would almost certainly drive infection rates higher.

Ogbonnaya explained that many young people engage in high-risk sexual activity, and access to condoms help reduce the likelihood of HIV transmission.

Although condoms have a failure rate of up to ten per cent, he stressed that they still provide essential protection.

He urged government authorities to confront funding gaps and invest strategically in the health system to avoid a deeper crisis.

He argued that while condoms should not necessarily be made free, integrating condom services into health insurance schemes could ease financial pressure on users.

He also said that enabling local production would reduce the cost and bolster availability across the country.

Professor Tanimola Akande, a public health specialist at the University of Ilorin, described the 55 per cent drop as massive, warning that it puts Nigerians at greater risk of HIV, unintended pregnancies and unsafe abortions.

He stressed that the decline could unravel years of progress made in reducing prevalence and would have significant consequences for both health care delivery and the broader economy.

Akande called on the government to subsidise condoms and expand procurement to plug distribution gaps.

He emphasised that intensifying health education, particularly for teenagers and young adults, would be critical in addressing risky sexual behaviour and reducing the impact of the condom shortage.

He suggested that boosting local production through incentives such as tax waivers would help secure long-term supply.

With the nation battling funding shortfalls and rising treatment needs, experts warn that failing to respond decisively to the condom shortage risks reversing hard-won progress in the fight against HIV and other sexually transmitted infections.