Politics is rarely only about elections. It is also about succession, control, alliances, interests and the management of political expectations. In Kwara State, these forces have combined to produce one of the most consequential intra-party crises ahead of Nigeria’s 2027 general elections.
What began as a contest over who would succeed Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq has gradually developed into a wider political rupture within the All Progressives Congress, with Senator Saliu Mustapha and other party stakeholders leaving the ruling party for the Peoples Democratic Party, followed by defections among elected officials and grassroots members.
The immediate issue is the 2027 governorship election. But beneath the contest lies a bigger question: who controls Kwara’s political future after AbdulRazaq leaves office?
The governor is serving his second term and cannot seek another term in 2027. That has made succession the defining political question within the Kwara APC.
AbdulRazaq has an obvious interest in what happens after his tenure, while other influential politicians have ambitions of their own. Mustapha, who represents Kwara Central in the Senate, was among the prominent figures who sought the APC governorship ticket.
The disagreement between the two politicians did not begin with the party primary, but the primary transformed a simmering rivalry into an open political confrontation.
The APC governorship primary held on May 22 became the defining moment. Yakubu Danladi-Salihu, Speaker of the Kwara State House of Assembly, emerged as the party’s candidate after securing 94,990 votes. Abdulfatai Yahaya Seriki polled 41,700 votes, while former APC state chairman Bashir Bolarinwa came third with 22,118 votes.
The result was politically significant for another reason. Danladi-Salihu is from Kwara North, a part of the state whose political stakeholders have long advocated the rotation of the governorship to the zone.
The primary therefore involved more than individual ambitions. It also reflected competing positions over zoning, power rotation and who should shape the next political administration.
However, the process quickly became controversial.
Several defeated aspirants and APC stakeholders questioned the primary and accused elements within the party of favouring a preferred succession arrangement. Ten governorship aspirants later wrote to President Bola Tinubu asking him to intervene in what they described as a worsening crisis within the Kwara APC.
Those allegations remain political claims rather than established facts. The APC has defended the primary, insisting that the process was conducted in accordance with its rules. Members of the Kwara State House of Assembly also publicly endorsed Danladi-Salihu and dismissed suggestions that the primary had not been properly conducted.
The political disagreement nevertheless continued.
A group of aggrieved stakeholders subsequently rallied around what Mustapha has called the Otoge Progressives Rainbow Coalition, bringing together political interests opposed to the prevailing direction of the Kwara APC. Mustapha unveiled the coalition in August after leaving the APC and joining the PDP.
His defection was particularly significant because it transformed an internal APC dispute into a wider political realignment.
Mustapha announced his resignation from the APC in August after consultations with supporters, constituents and political stakeholders. He later secured the PDP ticket to contest the Kwara Central senatorial seat, setting up a direct political contest with AbdulRazaq, who emerged as the APC’s preferred candidate for the same seat.
The development gave the PDP an opportunity to rebuild its political structure around some of the people and networks that had become alienated from the APC.
The irony is difficult to miss.
The APC’s political ascendancy in Kwara was built around the historic Otoge movement of 2019, which ended the long-standing dominance of the political structure associated with former Senate President Bukola Saraki.
Seven years later, the political landscape has changed considerably. Some of the forces that helped establish the APC’s dominance are now divided, while the PDP is attempting to rebuild around political networks that were weakened by the 2019 realignment.
The APC’s internal crisis has therefore become an opportunity for the PDP to reconstruct its grassroots organisation.
The defections are particularly significant because they have not been limited to prominent politicians.
In September, more than 2,000 APC members in Adewole Ward, Ilorin West Local Government Area, reportedly defected to the PDP in solidarity with Mustapha. Adewole is the ancestral ward of AbdulRazaq, giving the development considerable political symbolism.
Hundreds of APC members also defected to the PDP in Offa Local Government Area, including members of Shawo Central Ward, the political base of Senator Lola Ashiru. The defectors cited their confidence in Saraki’s leadership and the PDP’s political direction.
Two APC members of the Kwara State House of Assembly, Saba Yisa Gideon and Olusola Odetundun, also defected to the PDP. The Assembly subsequently declared their seats vacant after the APC invoked the constitutional provision governing defection by elected lawmakers. The PDP rejected the move and said it would challenge any action it considered unconstitutional.
But the political movement has not been one-way.
In late September, no fewer than 1,500 PDP members in Alapa/Onire/Odegiwa Ward, Asa Local Government Area, announced their defection to the APC. They cited grievances over alleged mistreatment, candidate imposition and poor reward for loyalty within the PDP, while saying they were attracted by the APC’s activities and opportunities.
That counter-movement is important because it demonstrates the fluid nature of Kwara politics. Defections may dominate headlines, but they do not automatically translate into electoral victory.
The legislative primaries also exposed the depth of tension within the APC.
In May, the party initially screened out 105 of 158 aspirants seeking its House of Assembly tickets, leaving only 53 cleared to continue in the process. Several serving lawmakers were among those initially declared uncleared.
The decision was subsequently reversed. The APC released a revised screening outcome clearing all 159 aspirants, after the inclusion of the Speaker brought the total number to 159.
The episode illustrates the intensity of the political atmosphere surrounding candidate selection, but it also cautions against reducing the entire crisis to a claim that AbdulRazaq personally handpicked every candidate.
Such claims have been made by aggrieved members, but they remain allegations.
The more defensible conclusion is that candidate selection became another battleground over control of the APC structure and the political configuration that will emerge after AbdulRazaq.
That is why Mustapha’s defection matters beyond the loss of one senator.
His exit has become part of a broader coalition of dissatisfied APC stakeholders attempting to create an alternative political structure ahead of 2027. At the same time, the APC leadership has insisted that its structure remains intact.
Fifty-one APC ward chairmen in Kwara Central, for instance, recently declared their continued support for AbdulRazaq and Danladi-Salihu and dismissed the significance of Mustapha’s departure.
The competing claims illustrate an important reality of Nigerian politics: political strength is often measured not only by formal party structures but also by the ability to mobilise people at ward and polling-unit level.
For the PDP, the opportunity is obvious. The party can attempt to convert APC grievances into a broader opposition coalition.
For the APC, the challenge is equally clear. It must prevent the succession dispute from becoming a permanent organisational split capable of weakening its candidates across the state.
There is also a federal dimension to the realignment.
Mustapha has repeatedly said that his movement out of the APC should not be interpreted as opposition to President Bola Tinubu. He has publicly maintained his support for Tinubu’s 2027 re-election while pursuing a different political alignment at the state level.
That distinction reflects the fluidity of Nigerian politics, where alliances at the presidential, senatorial and governorship levels do not necessarily follow the same pattern.
Kwara could therefore witness unusual alignments in 2027, with political actors supporting one platform at the presidential level and another at the state level.
At the heart of everything, however, is succession.
A governor approaching the end of his tenure naturally wants to influence what comes next. Aspirants want a fair opportunity to succeed him. Legislators want to retain their seats. Party leaders want to remain relevant, while political blocs want assurances that they will not be excluded from the next political dispensation.
When these interests collide, a party primary can become much more than a primary. It can become a struggle over the future direction of the party and, ultimately, the state.
That appears to be what has happened in Kwara.
Yet it would be premature to conclude that the APC has lost the state.
Nigerian political parties have repeatedly demonstrated an ability to survive internal disputes, reconcile factions and rebuild before elections. The absence of strong ideological differences between the major parties also makes political movement and realignment particularly fluid.
The real test will therefore not be the number of people who defect from one party to another, but whether those movements can be converted into effective political organisations.
For the APC, that means reconciling competing factions, retaining its grassroots machinery and maintaining the support that delivered electoral victories in previous cycles.
For the PDP and the emerging coalition around Mustapha and other aggrieved stakeholders, it means turning political dissatisfaction into sustained organisation, voter mobilisation and an electoral structure capable of competing across the state.
The 2027 contest will ultimately determine which political coalition secures the mandate of Kwarans.
For now, however, the deeper story is not simply AbdulRazaq versus Mustapha, or APC versus PDP.
It is a struggle over who will shape the political order that follows AbdulRazaq’s tenure.
The succession battle has escaped the confines of the APC and become a wider contest for the political future of Kwara.
AbdulBasit Saba is a journalist and contributor to Freelanews.com, covering news, business, and public affairs.
