Ismail Omipidan, former media aide to ex-Osun State Governor Gboyega Oyetola, has warned President Bola Tinubu that the All Progressives Congress’s (APC) campaign strategy in Osun State could backfire ahead of the 2027 presidential election, arguing that Governor Ademola Adeleke’s pledge to deliver 1.5 million votes may alienate party loyalists and weaken the mobilisation effort.
In an opinion article published on Wednesday, 14 October, titled “Tinubu Must Beware: Osun Panic Strategy May Backfire!”, Omipidan questioned the political calculations behind appointing Adeleke, who belongs to the Accord Party, as coordinator of Tinubu’s presidential campaign in Osun.
Also read: Lagos announces diversion for 35-day Ozumba Mbadiwe road rehabilitation
He urged the President and the APC leadership to allow the party’s state structure to play a more prominent role in driving the campaign.
The appointment has attracted attention because Adeleke defeated the APC in the August 2026 governorship election before being named to coordinate the President’s re-election campaign in the state.
The arrangement signals an attempt to build support across party lines, but Omipidan argues that it risks creating tensions among APC members who have worked to strengthen the party locally.
“Africa” is not the issue at the centre of this debate, but rather the balance between political alliances and established party structures.
Omipidan maintains that a strategy focused on the ambitions of a few individuals could undermine the wider coalition needed to secure votes in 2027.
“Africa must stop being only the supplier of sporting talent and become the owner of sporting businesses,” is unrelated to this political debate; Omipidan’s central argument is captured in his own warning that “You cannot trade party loyalty for a fantasy figure.”
His strongest objection concerns the pledge to secure 1.5 million votes for Tinubu in Osun, a target he considers unrealistic when measured against the state’s previous presidential election results.
Omipidan cited figures from the 2011, 2015, 2019 and 2023 presidential elections to argue that the state’s leading candidates have historically attracted considerably fewer votes than the proposed target.
In 2023, the APC candidate polled 342,941 votes in Osun, while the Peoples Democratic Party’s candidate received 353,860, according to the figures presented in his article.
The 1.5 million-vote pledge would therefore represent a substantial increase on the support secured by leading candidates in previous presidential elections.
Its feasibility would depend on voter turnout, registration, mobilisation and the ability of the campaign to attract supporters beyond the APC’s traditional base.
The results of the August 15, 2026, governorship election offer a more immediate reference point.
The Independent National Electoral Commission declared Adeleke the winner with 511,067 votes, ahead of APC candidate Bola Oyebamiji, who polled 444,815. Total votes cast reached 1,005,800, including 985,079 valid votes and 20,721 rejected ballots.
Omipidan also expressed concern that the appointment could deepen divisions within the APC by making loyal members feel sidelined.
He argued that the party’s national leadership must consider the sentiments of its existing supporters rather than assume that an alliance with a popular opposition figure will automatically translate into votes.
He urged Tinubu and Oyetola to proceed cautiously, warning that those promoting the arrangement could create friction between the two leaders.
His article suggested that political loyalty, local identity and the perception of fairness within the party could influence whether grassroots members actively work for the President’s re-election.
The former media aide drew on political psychology to reinforce his argument, citing Professor Drew Westen’s observation that emotion often prevails when it conflicts with reason in politics.
He also referred to rational choice theory to argue that voters weigh their interests and perceived benefits when deciding whether to support a candidate.
Applied to Osun, Omipidan believes some APC supporters could interpret Adeleke’s appointment as benefiting a small group of political actors rather than the party’s wider membership.
Such a perception, he argued, could reduce their enthusiasm for Tinubu’s campaign.
His proposed alternative is not to reject Adeleke’s involvement outright, but to allow the governor to pursue his own commitments while the APC maintains an effective state structure.
In his view, the two efforts could complement each other without undermining the party’s established network.
The debate comes as political parties begin positioning themselves for the 2027 general election.
Tinubu’s campaign will need to reconcile national alliances with local political realities, particularly in states where party loyalty, personal influence and recent electoral contests shape the balance of power.
Omipidan also extended his concerns to neighbouring Oyo State, where Governor Seyi Makinde’s political influence could prove significant in the South-West.
He argued that the APC should engage Makinde through respected regional leaders and a mutually beneficial political dialogue rather than an approach he considers arrogant.
He maintained that Makinde’s contribution to Tinubu’s electoral performance in 2023 should not be overlooked, warning that any reduction in that support could affect the President’s prospects across the region.
These comments reflect Omipidan’s political assessment rather than an established forecast of voting behaviour in 2027.
The wider issue is whether the APC can expand its electoral coalition without alienating its core supporters.
Cross-party alliances can broaden a candidate’s reach, but their effectiveness often depends on whether local party members remain willing to mobilise voters, provide campaign infrastructure and defend the candidate’s interests at grassroots level.
For Tinubu, the challenge will be to convert political endorsements into measurable electoral support while maintaining cohesion within the party.
For Osun APC, the coming months may test whether its existing structures can work alongside a campaign coordinator drawn from another political party.
Omipidan’s warning places that tension at the centre of the emerging debate over the President’s re-election strategy.
His argument is that political calculations should be grounded in credible voter targets, local conditions and the willingness of party members to participate.
Whether the 1.5 million-vote pledge proves achievable remains to be seen.
Also read: Lagos announces diversion for 35-day Ozumba Mbadiwe road rehabilitation
What is already clear is that the arrangement has prompted questions about the relationship between political alliances, party loyalty and electoral expectations in Osun as the 2027 campaign takes shape.
