Nigeria’s Excess Crude Account rises 13% in two years, with Stabilisation and Natural Resources Funds showing strong growth under Tinubu’s NEC

Nigeria’s Excess Crude Account rises by 13 per cent in two years, according to a review of data presented by the Accountant-General of the Federation to the National Economic Council (NEC).

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The analysis covers 15 council meetings held between June 2023 and October 2025.

Figures show that the ECA increased modestly from $473,754.57 at the NEC’s inaugural session under President Bola Tinubu to $535,823.39 by October 2025 — a gain of $62,068.82.

Though marginal in dollar terms, the growth marks the first sustained uptick in the sovereign savings fund in several years.

Meanwhile, the Stabilisation Account recorded a far stronger performance, rising from ₦26.63bn to ₦87.67bn, a surge of over 229 per cent.

The Development of Natural Resources Fund also expanded by 46 per cent, climbing from ₦96.90bn to ₦141.59bn during the same period.

Monthly data indicated short-term fluctuations, with the Stabilisation Fund dipping to ₦17.21bn in April 2024 before recovering sharply through 2025.

Similarly, the Natural Resources Fund slipped to ₦26.85bn by November 2024, rebounding to ₦141.59bn by October 2025.

The Excess Crude Account, established in 2004 under President Olusegun Obasanjo, serves as a savings buffer for oil earnings above the budget benchmark price.

Though it grew modestly under the Tinubu administration, its balance remains a fraction of the $20bn peak recorded in 2008 during the Yar’Adua era.

The Stabilisation Account and Natural Resources Fund, both statutory savings instruments, have benefited from recent policy adjustments and tighter fiscal coordination within the NEC.

The council reconstituted ad-hoc committees on crude theft and economic affairs in December 2023, helping restore daily oil output from under 800,000 barrels per day to about 1.7 million barrels in 2025.

Other initiatives during the review period include the $617.7m i-DICE programme to spur digital innovation, sectoral reforms in power, and a nationwide crackdown on gold smuggling approved at the NEC’s October 2025 meeting.

The NEC, chaired by the Vice President and comprising the 36 governors, the Central Bank Governor, and key ministers, continues to play a vital role in stabilising Nigeria’s fiscal environment amid economic reforms and high inflation.

Also read: Nigeria crude oil exports decline despite higher production

While the growth of Nigeria’s Excess Crude Account remains modest, analysts say the rise reflects cautious fiscal management and improved oil-sector performance, offering a glimmer of optimism for the country’s long-term macroeconomic recovery.