The Dangote Petroleum Refinery is going to need about N1.7tn worth of crude oil monthly following the directive of President Bola Tinubu mandating the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited to sell crude to the plant and other domestic refineries in naira.

On Monday, Tinubu directed NNPC to sell crude to the Dangote refinery and other upcoming refineries in naira.

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The Special Adviser to the President on Information and Publicity, Bayo Onanuga, had made this known in a post via his official X handle.

Onanuga said the Federal Executive Council adopted the move on Monday to ensure the stability of the pump price of refined fuel and the dollar-naira exchange rate.

An analysis of figures from various industry reports showed that the $20bn Dangote refinery located in Lekki, Lagos, would gulp about N1.7tn of crude oil monthly should NNPC meet the mandate of the President.

The average cost of crude in 2024 is about $83/barrel, based on data from Statistica, a global statistical firm.

The President, Dangote Industries, Alhaji Aliko Dangote, recently stated that his refinery would hit 500,000 barrels per day capacity in August, and 550,000bpd in December 2024.

This means that between August and November this year the refinery targets to refine 500,000bpd of crude oil, before proceeding to hit the 550,000bpd mark in December.

Going by 500,000bpd refining capacity and the $83/barrel average price of Brent, the global benchmark for crude, it implies that the plant would require about $41.5m worth of crude oil daily, which represents N56.55bn, using the average exchange rate of N1,362.6/$ in 2024.

This, therefore, implies that the refinery would gulp about N1.7tn worth of crude oil monthly based on the recent directive of the President mandating NNPC to supply crude to Dangote and other domestic refineries in naira.

Operators speak

The National Public Relations Officer of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chief Ukadike Chinedu, said though Nigeria has been battling to ramp up crude oil production, NNPC should endeavour to meet the President’s order.

“It is an order by the President that crude be sold to domestic refineries in naira, and that includes the Dangote refinery. We know that the refinery is massive and requires over 500,000 barrels of crude oil daily, so NNPC and its partners should work harder to meet this demand.

“We just have to try. The government has been talking about ramping up crude oil production. This is the time to deliver on that. The President has given an order and it is up to NNPC and the ministry to meet that order,” he stated.

On his part, the Publicity Secretary of the Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria, Eche Idoko, said the supply of crude to local refineries in naira would bring down the cost of petrol and strengthen the naira against the dollar.

“The sheer fact that the crude will be sold in naira will give the naira a lot of leverage against the dollar, and by implication, the naira will appreciate against the dollar. Automatically when there are fewer naira chasing the dollar, it will affect the price.

“It means the cost of refining will drop and this will affect the pump price. We will see a rebound in the pricing of fuel once the President’s order is implemented,” he stated.

During a tour of the refinery with journalists recently, Dangote said the refinery was fully online, with over $26bn being expected annually.

“Successful completion of trial run in January 2024. Refined and intermediate products include polypropylene, naphtha, RCO, gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Steady state production phase commenced in March 2024.

“Ramping up production to reach 500kbpd (15 crude cargoes a month) by next August, 550kbpd by the end of the year, and 650kbpd by the first quarter of 2025. Gasoline production is to commence in July with sales from August. Annual revenue is projected to exceed $26bn,” Dangote stated.

He added that the refinery has dedicated loading gantries with 86 loading bays; dedicated marine facilities for offtake of crude and loading of petroleum products; 900-kilo tonnes per annum polypropylene plant, 36ktpa sulphur, and 585ktpa carbon black production.

The total storage capacity of the refinery is put at 4.5 billion litres, which can cover 20 days of crude requirement product storage for 15 days of Nigeria’s petrol consumption.

He averred that the refinery would produce 53 million litres of petrol per day and 1.1 million tonnes per day.

“The Dangote refinery can meet Nigeria’s requirements and have a surplus for exports,” he stated.

On Tuesday, NNPC announced its goal to increase crude oil production to two million barrels per day by the end of the year, as it strives to meet domestic crude oil demand as well as export.

The country’s daily production rose from 1.27 million barrels in June to 1.6 million in July, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission.

Speaking during a meeting with Maritime Stakeholders at the Nigerian Navy Headquarters, the Group Managing Director of NNPC, Mele Kyari, expressed optimism that the target would be met, emphasising that NNPC was fully committed to achieving it.