Limited fuel imports by six licensed marketers and continued reliance on Dangote Refinery are reshaping Nigeria’s petrol market amid fears of fresh hardship

Oil marketers are preparing to raise the retail price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, to about ₦1,350 per litre, a development that could impose fresh financial pressure on millions of Nigerians already grappling with elevated transport and living costs, industry sources have told Freelanews.

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The planned increase comes as the country’s petrol supply remains heavily dependent on the Dangote Refinery, while imports continue to play only a supporting role in meeting domestic demand.

According to data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), six marketers currently hold approvals to import a combined 720,000 metric tonnes of petrol, equivalent to about 963.5 million litres.

The approved import allocations comprise AA Rano and Matrix Energy with 150,000 metric tonnes each, NIPCO, Shafa Energy, and Pinnacle Oil with 120,000 metric tonnes each, while Bono Energy received approval for 60,000 metric tonnes.

Industry figures indicate that the approved import volume represents only a fraction of national fuel requirements, underscoring the growing influence of local refining.

Between January and May 2026, Dangote Refinery supplied between 29.4 million and 40.7 million litres of petrol daily, accounting for more than 90 per cent of domestic supply during most of the period.

Imports, by comparison, fluctuated between 3 million and 24.8 million litres per day, serving largely as gap fillers whenever local production dipped.

An industry source familiar with downstream market pricing told Freelanews that marketers were adjusting pump prices in response to prevailing supply costs.

“The expectation in the market is that pump prices could move to around ₦1,350 per litre unless there is a significant reduction in ex-depot prices or other market interventions,” the source said.

The source added that import volumes have remained relatively low because marketers have found it increasingly difficult to compete with domestic supply from Dangote Refinery, while global geopolitical uncertainties have also affected supply planning.

Although market observers have linked some supply concerns to tensions involving Iran and the United States, available industry data suggest imports have generally remained within 4 million to 6 million litres per day in recent months as Dangote Refinery sustained production of approximately 35 million to 40 million litres daily.

The NMDPRA has yet to publish its complete June 2026 supply fact sheet. However, industry reports indicate that no additional petrol import licences were issued during the period, with marketers continuing to draw from allocations approved earlier.

The latest development marks another chapter in Nigeria’s evolving downstream petroleum market following the removal of petrol subsidies and the gradual transition towards market-driven pricing.

The commencement of large-scale operations at Dangote Refinery has significantly reduced the country’s dependence on imported fuel, with imports accounting for roughly 20 to 25 per cent of total petrol supply this year compared with about 55 per cent during the first quarter of 2025.

Energy analysts say the changing supply structure has prevented an even sharper dependence on imported fuel, but they caution that any increase in pump prices could have a devastating knock-on effect on transportation costs, food prices and inflation.

For households and businesses already struggling with rising operating expenses, any move towards ₦1,350 per litre is likely to intensify concerns over affordability, even as the market continues its transition towards greater reliance on domestic refining.

.As of mid-2026, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery is supplying about 41.5 million litres of petrol (Premium Motor Spirit, PMS) per day to the Nigerian market, according to the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).

The refinery’s overall crude oil processing capacity has also reached 700,000 barrels per day during performance tests, exceeding its original nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day.

In summary:

Current petrol (PMS) supply: approximately 41.5 million litres per day.