Negative warning as Myanmar elections seen as sham process

Myanmar elections face global criticism as a three-phase vote is planned despite conflict, raising fears over legitimacy and deepening the crisis.

Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing announced in Naypyidaw on 6 December that Myanmar elections will be held in three phases from 28 December to January, a move widely condemned by international observers who view the planned vote as an attempt to legitimise military rule.

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Min Aung Hlaing seized power in February 2021, triggering a civil war between the military, People’s Defence Forces and several ethnic armed organisations.

Thousands of activists, resistance fighters and politicians, including President Win Myint and National League for Democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, remain imprisoned.

Although the military controls major population centres, its air, artillery and drone attacks have failed to crush opposition groups that now hold significant territory.

The Myanmar elections will take place in only 274 of the country’s 330 townships due to the ongoing conflict.

The military-stacked Union Election Commission has deregistered political parties for failing to meet new membership and office requirements and has dissolved the National League for Democracy, further undermining confidence in the process.

The vote will unfold under a state-controlled media environment where criticism is criminalised. Citizens who question the elections on social media have been jailed for up to seven years with hard labour, while some offences carry the death penalty.

A newly introduced law seeks to prevent what authorities describe as disruption of multi-party elections, effectively banning dissent.

The National Unity Government in exile and its international supporters have urged the global community not to send observers, calling the process a sham.

ASEAN leaders insist that violence must end before any credible election can occur and have rejected an invitation to monitor the polls.

Individual ASEAN member states may still attend alongside Russia and Belarus, although Thailand has signalled growing reluctance.

China is believed to support the holding of elections but has yet to commit to observer participation.

Regional governments remain primarily concerned with border security, irregular migration, unregulated mining that pollutes shared rivers and the expansion of cyber scam hubs exploiting their citizens.

For these neighbours, engagement with the junta may become more defensible once the vote is held, despite fears of appearing complicit in ongoing abuses.

Analysts say the elections will not herald a transition to civilian rule.

Instead, they are expected to entrench military dominance, with the current commander likely to assume the presidency and install a loyal officer as commander-in-chief.

While the constitution shields the military leadership from civilian oversight, some observers note that a new commander might eventually seek a negotiated end to the conflict, offering a faint but powerful glimmer of change.

For now, the National Unity Government must confront the reality that the elections will reshape regional engagement.

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Without strategic recalibration, it risks drifting further into political obscurity as the junta consolidates its grip on power.

Peculiar Adirika