Higher oil prices lifted export values in early 2026, even as concerns over crude supply to domestic refineries persisted

Nigeria exported an estimated 182.2 million barrels of crude oil worth N24.02tn between January and June 2026, according to an analysis of production and export data, as stronger international oil prices boosted the value of shipments while concerns over adequate crude supplies for domestic refineries continued to grow.

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The estimated Nigeria crude exports were valued at about $17.60bn, based on an exchange rate of N1,365 to the dollar, while the country produced approximately 263.65 million barrels of crude during the six-month period, with an estimated market value of $25.41bn, or N34.69tn.

The figures, derived from Central Bank of Nigeria data and monthly production, export and Bonny Light crude price estimates, highlight the enduring importance of oil to Nigeria’s economy and foreign exchange earnings.

The data showed that crude production stood at 45.26 million barrels in January before falling to 36.68 million barrels in February.

Output subsequently recovered, reaching 42.78 million barrels in March, 44.70 million barrels in April and 47.43 million barrels in May. June production was estimated at 46.80 million barrels.

Crude exports followed a broadly similar trajectory, with 31.31 million barrels shipped in January, 24.08 million barrels in February, 28.83 million barrels in March, 31.20 million barrels in April, 33.48 million barrels in May and 33.30 million barrels in June.

The estimated value of crude produced rose from $3.08bn in January to $5.67bn in April before easing to $4.13bn in June. Export earnings followed the same broad pattern, climbing from $2.13bn in January to $3.95bn in April before falling to $2.94bn in June.

Overall, the country exported about 69 per cent of the crude it produced during the period, leaving an estimated 81.45 million barrels for domestic refining, storage, operational requirements and inventory adjustments.

Average daily production also improved during the period. Output increased from about 1.46 million barrels per day in January to an estimated 1.56 million barrels per day in June, after dropping to approximately 1.31 million barrels per day in February.

Average daily exports similarly rose from 1.01 million barrels per day in January to 1.11 million barrels per day in June, although shipments fell to about 860,000 barrels per day in February.

The stronger export value was driven largely by crude prices rather than a dramatic increase in export volumes.

International oil prices climbed between March and May amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and disruptions affecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Prices moderated in June but remained higher than at the beginning of the year.

The estimated N24.02tn represents the gross market value of exported crude and should not be interpreted as the amount received by the Nigerian government.

Actual government revenue is affected by royalties, taxes, production-sharing arrangements, operating costs, domestic crude supply obligations and other commercial agreements.

The figures also arrive against a growing debate over whether Nigeria can simultaneously maximise crude export earnings and guarantee sufficient feedstock for its expanding domestic refining industry.

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has previously raised concerns over crude availability, alleging that inadequate implementation of the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation under the Petroleum Industry Act has affected its operations. The Federal Government has denied the allegations.

The refinery’s concerns have added urgency to calls for stronger enforcement of the domestic supply framework, particularly as Nigeria seeks to reduce its dependence on imported refined petroleum products and build a more resilient downstream sector.

In court documents filed before the Federal High Court in Lagos, the refinery said its operations depend on crude supply arrangements with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and argued that inadequate domestic allocations were affecting its refining business.

The Publicity Secretary of the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria, Eche Idoko, also called for the full enforcement of the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation to ensure local refineries have access to sufficient feedstock while Nigeria maintains its crude production and export ambitions.

The competing demands underline a delicate balancing act for Africa’s largest oil producer. While higher crude prices offer a welcome boost to export values and foreign exchange inflows, sustained domestic refining will require reliable access to locally produced crude.

For Nigeria, the challenge is no longer simply producing and exporting more oil.

The more consequential question is how effectively the country can convert its finite petroleum resources into broader economic value, including stronger domestic refining capacity, improved energy security and greater public revenue.

The first half of 2026 has offered a powerful reminder of oil’s continuing economic significance.

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It has also exposed the strategic tension at the heart of Nigeria’s petroleum transition: maximising the immediate value of crude exports while ensuring enough of the nation’s most valuable natural resource remains available to support industrial growth at home.