Nigeria oil output averaged 1.66 million barrels per day in 2025, missing OPEC and budget targets despite rising condensate volumes

Nigeria produced 443.25 million barrels of crude oil between January and October 2025, according to data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, leaving the country below its output commitments and budget assumptions.

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The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission reported that Nigeria’s average crude oil production during the period stood at about 1.46 million barrels per day, representing roughly 97 per cent of the 1.5 million barrels per day quota allocated to the country by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

The figures confirm that Africa’s largest oil producer continued to struggle to meet its formal output targets despite intermittent improvements earlier in the year.

January recorded the strongest performance with 47.70 million barrels of crude oil, while February was the weakest month at 41.02 million barrels.

Production recovered in March and April and remained relatively firm through May, June and July before easing again in August and September.

Crude oil production in October stood at 43.44 million barrels.

In addition to crude oil, Nigeria produced 60.55 million barrels of condensate over the same period, including 17.38 million barrels of blended condensate and 43.17 million barrels of unblended condensate, underlining the growing importance of condensates in supporting overall oil volumes.

Combined crude oil and condensate production reached 503.79 million barrels, equivalent to an average of about 1.66 million barrels per day.

However, this fell short of the Federal Government’s 2025 budget benchmark of just over two million barrels per day, resulting in an estimated shortfall of about 340,000 barrels per day, or roughly 17 per cent below target.

In October alone, average daily production stood at 1.60 million barrels per day, comprising 1.40 million barrels of crude oil and around 196,000 barrels of condensate, placing crude output for the month at about 93 per cent of Nigeria’s OPEC allocation.

The persistent gap between actual production and official targets has significant implications for government revenue and foreign exchange earnings, as crude oil exports remain a dominant source of fiscal funding.

While the Federal Government has pledged to raise output through enhanced security, reduced crude theft and infrastructure rehabilitation, the January to October data suggest that structural and operational challenges continue to constrain performance.

Looking ahead, the Federal Government has projected about N60.97 trillion in oil revenue for 2026, a more cautious outlook than in the 2025 budget.

President Bola Tinubu told lawmakers that the estimate is based on a benchmark oil price of $64.85 per barrel, daily production of 1.84 million barrels, and an exchange rate of N1,400 to the dollar.

Earlier in the year, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, said Nigeria could reach 2.5 to three million barrels per day, describing recent gains as a powerful sign of recovery.

Those ambitions have yet to be realised.

Meanwhile, the newly appointed Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, Mrs Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, formally assumed office on December 23, pledging to reposition the upstream sector, boost investment and raise production.

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At her first town hall meeting with staff, Eyesan said the commission would become a business enabler focused on supporting growth, investment and value creation across the oil and gas industry.