Nigeria oil theft drains $15bn yearly, says Kaduna professor, warning it could derail President Tinubu’s reform agenda without urgent action
Nigeria oil theft is costing the nation an estimated $15 billion annually, according to a new study by Professor Usman Muhammed of Kaduna State University — a figure that raises serious concerns about the sustainability of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda beyond 2027.
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Speaking at the first Citizens Engagement Conference (North-West Edition) in Kaduna, themed “The Positive Impact of Oil and Gas Reforms by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu,” Professor Muhammed described the oil and gas sector as Nigeria’s economic backbone but lamented persistent governance failures, policy inconsistency, and infrastructural decay.
Despite holding 37 billion barrels of crude oil and 209 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves, he noted, Nigeria remains plagued by production inefficiencies and fiscal leakages.
“Despite being Africa’s largest oil producer, the country continues to struggle with declining productivity and weak institutional accountability,” he said.
Between 2019 and 2024, Nigeria’s crude oil output averaged 1.4 to 1.67 million barrels per day, below its OPEC quota of 1.8 million, while inflation and unemployment soared above 22 per cent and 33 per cent respectively.
Although the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021 introduced critical reforms, including the establishment of the NUPRC and NMDPRA, Professor Muhammed said enforcement remained weak.
“Implementation of the PIA and commercialisation of NNPC have yielded modest results, but production efficiency and local content development remain moderate,” he explained.
His research revealed a strong correlation between oil production and GDP growth (r = 0.74), suggesting that higher output could significantly boost national income.
Comparative data placed Nigeria behind its peers in regulatory efficiency, scoring 63 out of 100 — compared to Norway’s 92 and the United States’ 90.
“The twin problems of oil theft and pipeline vandalism continue to undermine the sector’s growth,” Professor Muhammed warned.
“Without decisive measures, Nigeria risks losing the transformative gains envisaged under the Renewed Hope Agenda.”
He recommended digital monitoring of production, pipeline rehabilitation with anti-theft technology, and greater investment in research and development.
He also urged the government to strengthen local content and promote diversification through gas-based industrial hubs.
Co-convener of the conference, Mallam Nasir AbdulQuadri, echoed these calls, urging government to cede refinery operations to private investors while focusing on regulation.
“Public refineries have failed for decades, but one man’s vision has given us the 650,000-barrels-per-day Dangote Refinery — proof that private ownership works,” he said.
AbdulQuadri added that deregulation was already yielding results. “When we deregulate, we kill corruption. The subsidy era enriched a few individuals at the expense of the nation. Now the process is transparent,” he noted.
Participants, including regulators and civil society actors, agreed that stability, transparency, and private-sector participation are key to unlocking the sector’s full potential.
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Professor Muhammed concluded that sustainable growth beyond 2027 depends not only on oil output but on institutional reforms, economic diversification, and accountability.
