Nigeria Power Shortfall fears rise as Seplat maintenance cuts gas supply, affecting seven power plants and reducing grid capacity

The Nigerian Independent System Operator (NISO) has warned of a potential Nigeria Power Shortfall after Seplat Energy commenced scheduled maintenance on a major gas facility, a move expected to reduce fuel supply to several thermal power stations between February 12 and 15.

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In a notice issued on Thursday, NISO said the maintenance would temporarily limit gas availability to at least seven grid-connected plants, potentially cutting generation by about 934.96 megawatts, nearly 19.7 per cent of the current available capacity of 4,753.10MW.

Power stations directly affected include Egbin, Azura, Sapele and Transcorp, while NDPHC Sapele, Olorunsogo and Omotosho are likely to experience indirect constraints due to system-wide gas balancing.

The operator said the maintenance affects gas flows into the NNPC Gas Infrastructure Company Limited pipeline network, reducing thermal generation capacity and requiring careful grid management to maintain stability.

NISO assured electricity market participants and consumers that real-time operational measures would be deployed to protect the integrity of the national grid.

Any load shedding, if necessary, would be implemented in a structured and equitable manner, with priority given to critical infrastructure, essential services and security installations.

Full gas supply is expected to resume on February 16.

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited confirmed the shutdown in a separate statement, describing the exercise by Seplat Energy as routine maintenance designed to ensure safety, operational efficiency and long-term reliability of critical gas infrastructure.

The company acknowledged that the four-day exercise would temporarily reduce gas volumes into the network, with possible knock-on effects on electricity generation.

NNPC Gas Marketing Limited is engaging alternative suppliers to mitigate supply gaps during the period.

Nigeria’s grid remains heavily dependent on gas-fired plants, which account for more than 70 per cent of installed capacity.

Even when installed generation exceeds 13,000MW, actual output often ranges between 4,000MW and 5,000MW due to gas shortages, transmission bottlenecks and plant outages.

Industry observers said any disruption to major facilities such as Egbin, the country’s largest thermal plant, or the Azura and Transcorp stations, typically has an immediate and widespread impact on national supply.

The Executive Director of PowerUp Nigeria, Mr Adetayo Adegbemle, criticised the situation as evidence of weak long-term planning, arguing that strategic gas storage and reserve capacity could reduce the impact of routine maintenance on electricity consumers.

For households and businesses, the technical adjustments may translate into darker homes, increased generator use and higher fuel costs during the maintenance window.

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The development underscores a persistent vulnerability in the sector, highlighting how the stability of Nigeria’s electricity supply remains tightly linked to the resilience of its gas infrastructure.