Petrol price reduction hopes rise as Dangote Refinery cuts ex-depot rates, with marketers predicting lower pump prices across Nigeria

Petroleum marketers have projected that petrol prices could fall to around N1,200 per litre in parts of Nigeria after the Dangote Petroleum Refinery reduced its ex-depot price by N75 per litre, a move driven by declining global crude oil prices.

Also read: Dangote Refinery cuts petrol price after relief move

The refinery announced that its Premium Motor Spirit gantry price had been cut from N1,250 to N1,175 per litre following the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a subsequent decline in international oil prices.

The latest adjustment has already prompted several depot operators to lower their own prices to approximately N1,180 per litre, signalling the beginning of a broader petrol price reduction across the downstream sector.

Despite the reduction at the depot level, many filling stations were still selling petrol at around N1,280 per litre on Tuesday. Marketers attributed the delay in passing on the lower prices to consumers to existing inventories purchased at higher rates.

In a circular issued to marketers, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery said the decision followed the de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East, which had significantly influenced energy markets over the past three months.

The refinery also reduced its coastal price per metric tonne from N1,595,790 to N1,495,215, with the new rates taking effect from midnight on June 16, 2026.

According to the refinery, all outstanding unloaded gantry volumes would be repriced at the new rate, a move expected to ease the transition to lower market prices.

Speaking on the development, National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, said consumers should begin seeing lower prices within days as marketers exhaust existing stock.

Ukadike projected that petrol could sell for between N1,200 and N1,250 per litre in Lagos, while prices in more distant locations may remain slightly higher due to transportation and logistics costs.

He explained that whenever Dangote announces a price reduction, loading activities often slow temporarily as marketers seek to clear inventory purchased at previous rates to minimise losses.

“By tomorrow and Friday, people will start adjusting to the new price,” he said, adding that the market would naturally respond once fresh supplies enter circulation.

The petrol price reduction follows a significant decline in crude oil prices after reports of a peace agreement between the United States and Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil shipping route.

Crude oil prices, which had surged above $120 per barrel during the height of the conflict, have fallen sharply.

Brent crude dropped from around $87 per barrel on Sunday to approximately $78 by Tuesday, easing pressure on refined petroleum product prices.

However, the spokesman of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria, Joseph Obele, expressed concern that imported petroleum products now appear cheaper than some locally refined fuel.

He called on regulators to issue additional import licences to encourage competition within the market.

Many Nigerians have also questioned whether the N75 reduction adequately reflects the scale of the recent drop in crude oil prices, arguing that fuel costs rose far more sharply during the period of geopolitical tensions.

Industry stakeholders nevertheless believe further reductions may be possible if global oil prices continue to decline.

A senior official at the Dangote refinery noted that future cuts remain likely, although the refinery is still processing crude purchased at significantly higher prices.

Analysts say petrol could fall even further, potentially approaching N900 per litre, if the peace agreement remains in place, crude prices continue their downward trend and lower-cost feedstock begins to enter refinery operations.

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For consumers grappling with high transport and living costs, the latest adjustment offers a promising sign that relief may soon reach fuel stations across the country.