Tinubu reforms have stabilised key economic indicators, but welfare gains remain limited amid inflation and rising living costs, CPPE says

The Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, has said the Tinubu Reforms have largely succeeded in restoring macroeconomic stability but have yet to deliver meaningful welfare improvements for many Nigerians.

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Yusuf made the assessment while reviewing the economic performance of President Bola Tinubu’s administration over its first three years in office, noting that the government inherited severe fiscal, monetary and foreign exchange challenges.

According to Yusuf, the administration took office amid acute foreign exchange illiquidity, multiple exchange rates, declining investor confidence and weakening external reserves.

Fiscal pressures were compounded by extensive Ways and Means financing and a costly fuel subsidy regime that distorted economic activity and strained public finances.

The economist identified fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate unification as the cornerstone policies driving the administration’s economic stabilisation programme.

Yusuf said the reforms reduced pressure on government finances, improved transparency in the foreign exchange market and curtailed arbitrage opportunities that had undermined economic efficiency.

However, Yusuf noted that the measures came with substantial adjustment costs.

“The immediate consequence of the reforms was a significant inflationary shock. Energy prices surged, transportation and logistics costs escalated, production expenses increased sharply, and the depreciation of the naira amplified imported inflation pressures,” Yusuf said.

The CPPE chief stated that the resulting inflation weakened purchasing power, reduced real incomes and deepened poverty levels, contributing to a prolonged cost of living crisis across the country.

Despite these challenges, Yusuf said there were strong indications of economic recovery.

He noted that Nigeria’s external reserves had improved significantly and were approaching $50 billion, while the country continued to record a trade surplus. Investor confidence has also strengthened, and exchange rate volatility has moderated since 2025.

A notable highlight of the review was the performance of the capital market. Yusuf said the Nigerian Exchange All-Share Index climbed from about 55,700 points in 2023 to more than 254,000 points in 2026, while market capitalisation expanded from roughly N30 trillion to over N160 trillion.

Yusuf also pointed to 11 consecutive months of disinflation between early 2025 and February 2026 before inflationary pressures resurfaced following geopolitical tensions involving Iran, the United States and Israel in March 2026.

According to Yusuf, the discontinuation of Ways and Means financing strengthened monetary discipline and improved macroeconomic stability.

He further described the emergence of domestic refining capacity, led by the Dangote Refinery, as a powerful development that has enhanced energy security and reduced pressure on foreign exchange demand.

“An economy that produces more of what it consumes is inherently more resilient than one that depends excessively on imports,” Yusuf said.

While acknowledging the gains achieved through the Tinubu Reforms, Yusuf stressed that several structural challenges remain unresolved.

He identified elevated inflation, weak consumer confidence, high energy costs, logistics bottlenecks, policy inconsistency and inadequate infrastructure as major obstacles to industrial competitiveness and job creation.

Yusuf also warned that insecurity continues to threaten economic recovery, particularly in the agricultural sector.

“No economy can achieve food security when farmers face persistent threats to their lives and livelihoods,” Yusuf stated.

On fiscal sustainability, Yusuf disclosed that Nigeria’s public debt rose to N159.3 trillion as of December 2025, partly due to naira depreciation and the securitisation of N23 trillion in legacy Ways and Means obligations.

Although debt sustainability remains a concern, Yusuf expressed optimism that ongoing tax reforms could strengthen government revenue and improve fiscal capacity.

The economist also emphasised the importance of transparency, accountability and good governance in maintaining public support for reform policies.

“The long-term sustainability of economic reforms rests on the principle of shared sacrifice. Public confidence is strengthened when citizens perceive that the costs of adjustment are borne not only by households and businesses, but also by the political and governing elite,” Yusuf said.

Looking ahead, Yusuf urged the administration to focus on translating macroeconomic gains into inclusive growth through stronger investment, higher productivity, improved food security, expanded energy access and sustainable job creation.

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He said the ultimate measure of success would not be reserve accumulation, exchange rate stability or stock market growth, but tangible improvements in incomes, employment opportunities and the quality of life of ordinary Nigerians.