Crude supply to refineries Nigeria lags as NUPRC reports only 28.5m barrels lifted from $5.17bn offered in Q1 2026

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission has raised concern over a persistent gap in crude supply to refineries Nigeria, revealing that domestic refiners lifted only 28.5 million barrels in the first quarter of 2026 despite producers offering crude worth about $5.17bn.

Also read: NNPC increases crude supply to Dangote Refinery

Data released by the commission showed that oil producers made available 68.7 million barrels between January and March under the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation framework, while 61.9 million barrels were formally allocated to local refineries.

However, actual deliveries fell sharply below expectations, translating to a weak conversion rate of between 36 and 46 per cent, a troubling indicator for Nigeria’s refining ambitions.

The commission’s Head of Media and Corporate Communications, Eniola Akinkuotu, said the figures reflect ongoing enforcement of supply obligations in line with the Petroleum Industry Act, even as market realities continue to shape outcomes.

“The commission has continued to enforce the provisions of the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation.

While producers have demonstrated strong compliance by offering volumes above allocated thresholds, actual supplies remain constrained by prevailing commercial dynamics,” Akinkuotu said.

A month-by-month breakdown illustrates the scale of the disconnect. In January, producers offered 25.3 million barrels against an allocation of 22.6 million barrels, yet only 9.2 million barrels were delivered.

In February, 19.8 million barrels were offered compared to a 20.5 million barrel allocation, with deliveries slipping slightly to 9.1 million barrels.

March recorded a modest improvement, with 10.1 million barrels delivered out of 23.6 million barrels offered, despite allocations standing at 18.8 million barrels.

The cumulative value of crude offered during the quarter was estimated at $5.17bn, based on average monthly prices ranging from $68 to $95.03 per barrel.

Despite this significant availability, the crude supply to refineries Nigeria remains constrained, raising fresh concerns over feedstock adequacy and energy security.

Industry stakeholders say the gap is largely driven by pricing disagreements between producers and refiners, as transactions under the framework operate on a willing buyer, willing seller basis.

The challenge is particularly evident in the case of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which has increasingly turned to international markets for crude supply despite government efforts to prioritise domestic allocation.

The facility has imported substantial volumes from the United States and other countries, citing pricing structures and crude grade compatibility as key factors influencing sourcing decisions.

The Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria has argued that locally produced crude, often priced against Brent benchmarks at a premium, places domestic refiners at a competitive disadvantage compared to alternatives such as West Texas Intermediate.

Publicity Secretary of the association, Eche Idoko, said a more tailored pricing mechanism is needed to reflect Nigeria’s refining realities and reduce reliance on imports.

According to him, aligning pricing structures with domestic operational needs would strengthen local supply chains and improve refinery utilisation.

The commission, however, reaffirmed its commitment to closing the supply gap, stating that it is refining the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation methodology to enhance transparency and efficiency.

“Our objective is to ensure that domestic refineries are adequately supplied in line with national energy sufficiency goals,” the regulator said.

Also read: Dangote refinery faces $5.4bn crude shortfall

The crude supply to refineries Nigeria challenge underscores deeper structural and commercial bottlenecks, even as policymakers push to reduce dependence on imported petroleum products and build a resilient domestic refining sector.