The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, NUPRC, on Monday, August 10, 2026, reported a sharp improvement in domestic crude supply during the second quarter, with Dangote Refinery receiving 52.6 million barrels of the 53.7 million barrels supplied to local refineries between April and June.

The figures mean Dangote crude supply accounted for about 98 per cent of all crude and condensate actually delivered to domestic refiners during the three-month period, underlining the refinery’s dominant position in Nigeria’s emerging local refining market.

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The latest data also reveal a more complicated picture beneath the headline figure. Producers offered 69.3 million barrels to domestic refineries during Q2, exceeding the 55.1 million barrels allocated by the NUPRC by 14.2 million barrels, or 25.8 per cent.

Actual deliveries, however, came in at 53.7 million barrels, leaving roughly 15.6 million barrels of the volumes offered unutilised.

The Dangote refinery had indicated a requirement of 63 million barrels for the quarter.

Producers offered the refinery 68.1 million barrels, but the facility accepted 52.6 million barrels, about 77 per cent of the crude offered to it and 10.4 million barrels below its stated requirement.

The development marks a significant improvement from the first quarter, when Nigeria’s domestic crude supply framework struggled to convert large offers into actual deliveries.

NUPRC data for Q1 showed that producers offered 68.7 million barrels against an allocation of 61.9 million barrels, yet local refineries received only 28.5 million barrels.

The regulator attributed much of the gap to pricing differences between producers and refiners under the existing commercial framework.

The Q2 figures suggest that the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation, DCSO, has gained momentum, although the difference between crude offered and crude ultimately delivered remains substantial.

Under Section 109 of the Petroleum Industry Act, the DCSO requires oil producers to make crude available to domestic refineries.

Transactions still operate on a “willing buyer, willing seller” basis, meaning an offer by a producer does not automatically translate into a completed sale or physical delivery.

The NUPRC said the improved performance was supported by higher local oil production and the signing of longer-term crude supply agreements backed by bankable Sales and Purchase Agreements.

The commission described the Q2 outcome as evidence that the DCSO was “actively administered and enforced”, while reaffirming its intention to sustain the progress.

Monthly figures show how uneven the process remained.

In April, producers were allocated 18.13 million barrels and offered 19.31 million barrels, while actual supply reached 20.88 million barrels, equivalent to 114.9 per cent of the allocation.

May produced a weaker result. Although 23.19 million barrels were offered against an allocation of 18.78 million barrels, actual supply fell to 14.23 million barrels, representing 75.8 per cent of the allocation.

The situation improved again in June, when producers offered 26.84 million barrels against an allocation of 18.17 million barrels.

Actual supply reached 18.61 million barrels, representing 102.4 per cent performance against the allocation.

For Nigeria’s refining ambitions, the development carries considerable weight.

The Dangote refinery has a nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day and is Africa’s largest refinery, although it has continued to ramp up operations and has faced operational challenges since beginning commercial production in January 2024.

The refinery’s ability to secure more domestic crude is therefore closely linked to Nigeria’s broader effort to capture greater value from its petroleum resources at home rather than relying heavily on imported refined products.

The Q1 experience showed that simply allocating or offering crude is not enough to guarantee refinery feedstock.

Reuters reported in May that pricing disputes remained a major obstacle to converting allocated volumes into actual deliveries, with the regulator pointing to differences between producers and refiners.

Industry stakeholders have also questioned whether the willing buyer, willing seller model can consistently deliver the volumes required by domestic refineries.

The Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria has previously argued that pricing arrangements under the framework can create distortions that make local refining less competitive.

Against that background, the Q2 figures represent a notable step forward but not a complete resolution of Nigeria’s crude supply challenge.

The fact that Dangote accepted 52.6 million barrels while requiring 63 million barrels also shows that the country’s largest refinery still did not receive enough crude to meet its stated quarterly requirement.

For the wider refining sector, the challenge will be to ensure that increased production, regulatory allocations and commercial agreements translate into dependable physical deliveries to a broader range of domestic plants.

The NUPRC said it would continue using the Petroleum Industry Act framework to strengthen crude production and enforce the DCSO as part of the Federal Government’s drive towards energy sufficiency.

If the Q2 improvement can be sustained, it could provide a powerful boost to Nigeria’s local refining ambitions.

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But the persistent gap between crude offered and crude actually received means the success of the policy will ultimately be measured not by allocations on paper, but by how reliably refineries can obtain the feedstock needed to operate.