Nigeria could earn over $100bn annually from agriculture by 2026, report shows, with technology and policy reforms crucial to boosting productivity and exports

Nigeria has the potential to earn more than $100 billion annually from agricultural exports while employing less than four per cent of its workforce, according to the 2025 Review and 2026 Forecast of the Origin Tech Group Intelligence Report released in Lagos.

Also read: Nigeria unveils private sector reforms to boost agriculture

The report highlighted the opportunity for Nigeria to gradually align with global agricultural productivity benchmarks observed in advanced economies such as the United States and the Netherlands, where technology, scale, and efficiency drive high output with minimal labour participation.

Describing 2026 as a decisive year for the sector, the report warned that policy consistency will be critical.

Decisions made in the pre-election year could either lock in recent gains or reverse progress.

It emphasised that sustained support for fertilisers and agro-mechanisation, rather than reliance on large-scale food imports, offers a more durable path to food security.

Origin Tech Group subsidiary, Origin Automobile Works, plans to expand equipment financing and supply locally assembled tractors, targeting farms of at least 1,000 hectares.

The initiative aims to enable 1,000 large-scale farms nationwide, a scale considered essential for competitiveness and productivity.

The report also outlined the rollout of an AI-powered agricultural platform designed to provide Nigeria-specific insights for farmers, investors, and policymakers.

Expanded use of drones for farm imaging and precision agriculture is expected to improve operational efficiency and decision-making.

Major infrastructure projects were highlighted as transformative for Nigeria’s food systems.

These include Phase 1 of the Lagos Central Food Systems and Logistics Park in Ereyun-Ketu, Epe, mid-level markets, the Igbodu Cattle Feedlot, and the commencement of operations by the Bulk Food Company, which are expected to enhance aggregation, storage, and logistics nationwide.

Despite strong output growth in 2025, farmers faced mounting financial pressure due to rising costs of fertilisers, fuel, herbicides, and farm machinery.

Climate shocks and security challenges further complicated operations, creating a paradox of higher yields but tighter margins.

The report cited federal government actions such as temporary exemptions on import duties for selected food staples, which helped reduce prices.

For example, locally produced rice prices fell to about ₦65,000 from a peak of ₦90,000, while imported parboiled rice dropped to ₦62,000 from ₦92,000. Maize, beans, and garri also saw notable price declines across major markets.

According to the report, Nigeria stands “at a threshold rich with promise but dependent on discipline, policy consistency, and stakeholder commitment.”

Also read: Netherlands support for Nigerian agriculture sparks hope for sustainable growth, food security reforms

Success in 2026 will require balanced growth that aligns commercial sustainability with affordability and inclusion, ensuring long-term benefits for farmers and consumers alike.