Despite increased refining capacity, Nigeria imported 69% of its petrol between August 2024 and October 2025, as Dangote refinery ramps up production

Despite significant improvements in refining capacity, Nigeria has imported nearly 69 per cent of its petrol between August 2024 and early October 2025, according to data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).

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The figures reveal that out of the 21.68 billion litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) supplied nationwide during the 15-month period, 15.01 billion litres came from imports, while domestic refining accounted for 6.67 billion litres, or 31 per cent.

The data, titled “Import vs Domestic Supply Performance (PMS Daily Average Supply – August 2024 to October 2025)”, showed a gradual rise in local output as the Dangote Refinery—which began petrol production in September 2024—expanded its contribution to national supply.

At the start of the period, imported petrol averaged 44.6 million litres per day in August 2024, peaking at 54.3 million litres in September 2024, just as the refinery began local supply. However, by October 2025, imports had fallen sharply to 15.1 million litres per day, reflecting the growing impact of domestic refining.

Meanwhile, local production rose from 6.43 million litres per day in September 2024 to 22.66 million litres in January 2025, before stabilising around 20 million litres per day.

By October 2025, Dangote Refinery’s output had surpassed import volumes, producing 18.93 million litres per day on average.

Despite this progress, imports continued to dominate the national petrol mix for most of the period. Total daily supply peaked at 60.73 million litres in September 2024 before declining steadily to 34.04 million litres per day in October 2025, signalling both reduced consumption and improved local efficiency.

The Federal Government’s deregulation of the petrol sector in September 2024—ending decades of fuel subsidy payments—also reshaped the downstream landscape. Yet, competition between importers and Dangote Refinery has remained intense.

Marketers have accused Dangote of stifling competition with price reductions, while the refinery maintains it has ample supply capacity for the local market.

“We have more than 310 million litres of PMS in storage and can load any number of tankers,” said Devakumar Edwin, Vice President of Dangote Group.

The refinery has also engaged in international exports. Between June and July 2025, Dangote exported one million tonnes of petrol, and earlier in February, it supplied two cargoes of aviation fuel to Saudi Aramco.

Confirming the refinery’s growing influence, NMDPRA Chief Executive, Farouk Ahmed, noted that “the operation of the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote refinery has changed the supply dynamics, contributing up to 20 million litres daily to the local market.”

Experts say Nigeria is undergoing a transition from heavy import dependence to a more balanced and self-sustaining supply structure. However, market dynamics and pricing competition could delay full self-sufficiency.

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With domestic refining capacity expanding and consumption gradually declining, Nigeria’s downstream sector is entering a new phase — one that promises reduced imports, stronger local output, and the long-sought goal of ending the nation’s reliance on foreign fuel.