Businesses welcome marginal slowdown but warn rising food costs and double-digit inflation continue to strain households and firms

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate edged down marginally to 15.91 per cent in June 2026 from 15.93 per cent recorded in May, marking its first decline after three consecutive monthly increases, although business leaders cautioned that persistent food price pressures continue to weigh heavily on households and enterprises.

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The latest Nigeria Inflation 15.91% figures were released on Wednesday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its Consumer Price Index report, which showed that while the pace of overall price increases slowed slightly, food inflation accelerated on a month-on-month basis as the cost of staple commodities continued to rise.

According to the bureau, headline inflation stood at 15.91 per cent in June, compared with 25.29 per cent in the corresponding month of 2025, representing a marginal decline of 0.02 percentage points from the previous month.

“In June 2026, the Headline inflation rate was 15.91 per cent, down from 15.93 per cent in May 2026 and stood at 25.29 per cent in the same month of the preceding year (June 2025),” the NBS stated.

The bureau also reported that the Consumer Price Index rose to 143.0 points in June from 140.7 points in May, while month-on-month headline inflation slowed to 1.66 per cent, compared with 1.75 per cent recorded a month earlier.

The latest reading ends a run of three consecutive monthly increases that saw headline inflation rise from 15.06 per cent in February to 15.38 per cent in March, 15.69 per cent in April and 15.93 per cent in May.

Despite the modest improvement, the report highlighted mounting pressure on food prices.

Food inflation stood at 17.52 per cent year-on-year in June, while month-on-month food inflation accelerated to 3.75 per cent, up from 2.98 per cent in May.

The NBS attributed the increase to rising prices of several essential food items, including fresh pepper, tomatoes, crayfish, beef, garri, yam tubers, cassava flour, cowpeas, Irish potatoes and bananas.

Food and non-alcoholic beverages remained the largest contributor to headline inflation, accounting for 6.37 percentage points of the overall inflation rate.

Other significant contributors included restaurants and accommodation services at 2.06 percentage points, transport at 1.70 percentage points, housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels at 1.34 percentage points, education services at 0.99 percentage points and health at 0.96 percentage points.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices, eased to 15.92 per cent year-on-year in June, while its month-on-month rate slowed to 1.66 per cent from 1.94 per cent recorded in May.

Reacting to the figures, the President of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), Leye Kupoluyi, described the slight moderation as encouraging but stressed that Nigeria still had considerable progress to make before achieving lasting price stability.

“When inflation goes down, it’s for the benefit of the consumer. The consumer is you and me, every one of us. Therefore, it is what we all look forward to in any society,” Kupoluyi said.

“When inflation comes to a single unit, or even at less than one per cent, that is what we call stability. Therefore, if inflation is going down in Nigeria, no doubt, it’s good news for everyone, government, industry, and the consumer.”

He added that recent economic indicators suggested improving macroeconomic stability and expressed optimism that the downward trend would continue.

The President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria (ASBON), Dr Femi Egbesola, attributed the easing inflation rate partly to seasonal increases in food supply during the rainy season, lower energy costs and manufacturers’ growing reliance on locally sourced raw materials.

“I think food and agriculture have been one of the major drivers of inflation, and this time we are in the rainy season, where we have more food, which means more supply than demand and naturally drives down prices,” Egbesola said.

However, he warned that the improvement could prove temporary unless supported by structural government policies.

“My concern is whether the government will be able to sustain this. If the reason for the drop in inflation is not strategic but seasonal or based on unstructured indices, then it will not be sustainable,” he said, urging greater investment in irrigation, year-round agriculture and reliable electricity supply.

Offering a more cautious assessment, the Director-General of the Nigerian Association of Small and Medium Enterprises (NASME), Eke Ubiji, argued that businesses and consumers had yet to experience any meaningful easing in market prices.

“Things are not stabilising. Inflation remains very high. We use market intelligence to know what is happening, not theories. People who go to buy things will tell you the truth,” Ubiji said.

“Food is even the first casualty. People have been complaining since the beginning of the year, and this is already the seventh month. If there was any real stabilisation, you would have seen it by now.”

The NBS report also showed differences across regions.

Urban inflation stood at 16.08 per cent year-on-year, compared with 15.48 per cent in rural areas. On a monthly basis, urban inflation rose to 2.13 per cent, while rural inflation slowed significantly to 0.52 per cent.

State-by-state data revealed wide disparities in price pressures. Niger State recorded the highest annual all-items inflation rate at 42.23 per cent, followed by Kogi at 41.59 per cent and the Federal Capital Territory at 39.91 per cent.

The lowest annual inflation rates were recorded in Imo at 19.47 per cent, Ebonyi at 20.79 per cent and Katsina at 21.87 per cent.

For food inflation, Kogi State posted the highest year-on-year rate at 53.02 per cent, followed by Niger at 43.83 per cent and Benue at 40.83 per cent, while Katsina, Rivers and Imo recorded the lowest food inflation rates.

Also read: Inflation, insecurity push Nigerians into survival diet crisis

Although the latest figures suggest inflationary pressures may be beginning to moderate, analysts note that the continued rise in food prices remains the most immediate concern for households and businesses, underscoring the importance of sustained agricultural reforms, improved food supply chains and broader macroeconomic stability to secure a more durable decline in inflation.