A recent report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) has revealed that Nigeria’s national power grid suffered 46 collapses between 2017 and 2023. The report highlighted that Nigerians experienced numerous nationwide blackouts during this period, with a significant event occurring on September 14, 2023, when the grid collapsed due to a fire on a major transmission line.

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The IEA’s findings pointed to recurrent power failures in Nigeria, attributing them to challenges such as aged infrastructure and vandalism. The deteriorating state of power infrastructure has led to an increased reliance on backup generators, accounting for 40% of electricity consumption in the country.

Despite having a total installed capacity of around 13 GW, the average available capacity in 2023 remained at approximately 4.5 GW due to factors like aging units, insufficient maintenance, and financial constraints. Unreliable power supply has been a significant issue, prompting 40% of electricity consumption to be generated from backup generators.

The report highlighted that natural gas played a dominant role, constituting about 75% of electricity generated on the main grid in 2023. The IEA noted that natural gas would continue to be crucial for energy supply and grid stabilization in Nigeria’s power sector until 2030, gradually declining by 2050, as outlined in the country’s Energy Transition Plan.

Renewable energy sources are expected to gain prominence, with a forecasted compound annual growth rate of approximately eight percent over the 2024-2026 period. The report anticipates substantial growth in hydropower, driven by the completion of the Zungeru project, contributing an estimated 2.6 TWh per year. Solar photovoltaic (PV) is also poised for rapid expansion, with an average growth rate exceeding 50% per year over the next three years.