US cuts Nigerian imports by 41% in July as Trump tariffs bite, exposing Nigeria’s fragile trade position and dependence on crude oil exports

Fresh figures from the US Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis show that imports of Nigerian goods fell sharply from $639 million in June 2025 to $379 million in July a staggering 41 per cent decline.

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Exports from the US to Nigeria also dipped during the same period, sliding from $919 million to $584 million. Washington still managed a surplus of $206 million in July, although down from $280 million the previous month.

For Nigeria, the sudden fall in exports underlines how quickly its long-standing surplus position with the US has eroded.

Between January and July 2025, the US exported $3.92 billion worth of goods to Nigeria, while imports stood at $3.14 billion, leaving Washington with a surplus of $781 million.

The slump coincides with renewed tariffs under President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal” regime. In late July, tariffs on Nigerian exports rose from 14 to 15 per cent.

While crude oil the backbone of Nigeria’s trade remains partly shielded, uncertainty has chilled demand for non-oil goods directly hit by higher duties.

Trade analyst Dr Aliyu Ilias said Nigeria should view the development as a chance to diversify. “Trump’s tariff is not only for Nigeria.

The advantage is that we are now exporting more overall, which is positive,” he argued, urging stronger ties with BRICS and Asian economies.

Dr Muda Yusuf of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise was more cautious, describing Nigeria’s trade with the US as “not that strategic” given its narrow export profile.

He suggested that Washington’s visa policies may pose a greater obstacle than tariffs by limiting business and investment flows.

Nigeria’s Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Jumoke Oduwole, echoed a reformist stance, stressing that Abuja would not retaliate but instead focus on non-oil exports and African Continental Free Trade Area opportunities.

“We are not reacting. We’re focused on Tinubu’s eight-point agenda and supporting domestic investors,” she said.

While US trade with Africa overall rose in July imports climbed to $4.47 billion the collapse in Nigerian exports underscores the country’s vulnerability.

Also read: Nigeria’s petrol imports plummet amid increased local refining

For Abuja, the decline is both a warning and an opening: a warning about overdependence on energy exports, and an opening to reposition its trade diplomacy towards new partners.