Dangote crude imports hit $3.74bn in 2025, reshaping Nigeria’s oil trade and current account despite strong refined exports

The Central Bank of Nigeria has disclosed that Nigeria recorded $3.74bn in Dangote crude imports in 2025, signalling a striking shift in the country’s oil trade dynamics despite its status as Africa’s largest crude producer.

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The figure, contained in the bank’s Balance of Payments report, showed that crude oil imports linked to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery played a notable role in shaping the country’s external balance during the year.

Nigeria posted a current account surplus of $14.04bn in 2025, down from $19.03bn in 2024 but significantly higher than the $6.42bn recorded in 2023.

The decline was partly attributed to structural adjustments in oil trade flows, including the rise in Dangote crude imports for domestic refining.

Crude oil exports fell to $31.54bn in 2025 from $36.85bn in the previous year, marking a 14.41 per cent drop and further influencing the overall balance.

However, the goods account remained resilient, posting a surplus of $14.51bn, up from $13.17bn in 2024. This improvement was largely driven by refined petroleum exports and stronger performance in other export segments.

The Central Bank noted that refined petroleum exports from the Dangote refinery reached $5.85bn, a powerful development that also contributed to a sharp reduction in Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel.

Fuel import bills declined significantly, with refined petroleum imports dropping to $10.00bn in 2025 from $14.06bn in 2024, representing a 28.88 per cent decrease.

Despite these gains, non-oil imports rose to $29.24bn from $25.74bn, reflecting sustained demand for foreign goods and adding pressure to the current account.

Further strain came from increased external payments. Net service outflows rose to $14.58bn, driven by higher spending on transport, travel and insurance.

Primary income outflows also surged by 60.88 per cent to $9.09bn, largely due to dividend and interest payments to foreign investors.

Secondary income inflows, including remittances, eased slightly to $23.20bn from $24.88bn, although they remained a key support for the external sector.

On the financial account, Nigeria recorded a reversal, posting a net borrowing position of $1.69bn compared to a net lending position of $9.65bn in 2024.

Portfolio investment inflows fell sharply by 48.3 per cent to $8.04bn, while foreign direct investment rose to $4.01bn, indicating a gradual pivot towards longer-term capital.

The overall balance of payments remained positive at $4.23bn, though lower than the $6.83bn surplus recorded a year earlier. External reserves increased to $45.75bn by the end of December 2025, reflecting improved buffers.

Analysts say the surge in Dangote crude imports underscores a persistent supply paradox in Nigeria’s oil sector, where domestic refineries continue to depend heavily on foreign crude despite government policies aimed at prioritising local supply.

Jeremiah Olatide, Chief Executive Officer of Petroleumprice.ng, said the Federal Government’s naira-for-crude policy has delivered limited results since its introduction in 2024.

Jeremiah Olatide stated that the Dangote refinery still sources between 65 and 70 per cent of its feedstock from abroad, while most modular refineries also rely on imported crude outside the policy framework.

He added that although increased refining capacity has improved product availability, it has not translated into lower fuel prices, as pricing remains tied to international benchmarks.

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The development highlights a complex transition in Nigeria’s oil sector, where expanding domestic refining capacity is reshaping trade flows but has yet to fully resolve supply constraints or deliver price relief to consumers.