SPECIAL REPORT: Wike: Survival or sunset?

The unfolding conflict between Wike and his estranged political-son cum Rivers State governor, Siminalayi Fubara, fits squarely into this familiar pattern – one where succession, rather than securing influence, becomes the seed of rebellion. To understand the Wike–Fubara fallout, it is important to first recall how Fubara emerged. Wike handpicking him as Rivers governor was meant to be a loyal extension of his authority. Instead, he has become a symbol of rebellion against Wike’s political dominance

POLITICS in Nigeria has always been anything but straightforward. It’s more like a maze filled with changing loyalties, strategic betrayals, and fierce realignments. Unlike a clear and predictable route, the Nigerian political landscape is full of twists and turns, where allegiances can be short-lived, principles are often up for negotiation, and the pursuit of power is done with a kind of cold calculation.

From the First Republic to the present Fourth Republic, political actors have learned that staying in power is more about being flexible than just sticking to a certain ideology. Alliances are formed not necessarily around shared beliefs, but around immediate interests, access to state power, control of resources and monopolising privileges.

At the heart of this complexity is winner-takes-all political culture. Electoral victory often determines not just who leads or governs, but who eats out of the national cake, who is protected, who gets appointed, and who is politically relevant.

This reality leads to loyalty switching, with politicians jumping around between different parties and power blocs just to stay in the loop. Most of the time, these shifts aren’t about disagreements on policies; they are more about making strategic moves to stay connected to where the real power lies.

Calculated betrayals have become almost institutionalised. As loyalty weakens and begins to fail, godfathers turn against their protégés. In response, the protégés revolts when their quest for independence threatens the grip of their sponsors.

Political parties discard long-serving members the moment they become liabilities, while yesterday’s rivals become today’s allies without apology. These betrayals are often executed quietly at first – through court cases, internal party maneuvers, or strategic silence – before eventually leading to all-out confrontations. In this kind of setting, political survival becomes a game of anticipation: reading power signals, aligning early, and abandoning ships before they sink. Constant movements and endless recalculations make Nigerian politics unpredictable, ruthless, and perpetually unstable.

As the countdown to the 2027 general elections begins, one question is increasingly being asked – quietly but unmistakably – in political circles from Abuja to Port Harcourt: Is Ezenwo Nyesom Wike headed for the same fate as former Kano State governor and former All Progressive Congress (APC) National Chairman, Abdullahi Ganduje, who was used and dumped?

To understand why this question is now looming over the former Rivers State governor and current Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), you need to look back at his intricate political path. It’s a story filled with intense loyalty, dramatic fallouts, sometimes loud for a purpose, and a remarkable knack for staying in the game.

From grassroots to godfather: Political journey since 1999

Checks showed that Nyesom Wike emerged from the political currents of the Fourth Republic with the advantage of timing, grit, and proximity to power. His early political ascendancy was closely tied to Dr. Peter Odili, the former Rivers State governor who reigned supreme in the state between 1999 and 2007.

He cut his political teeth as Executive Chairman Obio-Akpor Local Government Area under Odili’s wings, from 1999 to 2007. He was appointed Chief of Staff to the Government House when Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi was the governor.

In July 2011, he was appointed Minister of State for Education by President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, and was elevated to substantive minister of the same ministry in September 2013 following sack of Ruqayyah Ahmed Rufai but resigned before finishing his term to contest in the governorship race in Rivers State in the April 11, 2015 general election, which he won under the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), defeating defeated Dakuku Peterside of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Tonye Princewill of the Labour Party (LP).

In March 2022, Wike declared that he will be running for the office of president under the platform of the PDP ahead of the 2023 general election. He was defeated by former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, who won the primaries with 371 votes while Wike got 237 votes as the first runner up, during the party’s presidential election primary which was held at the MKO Abiola National stadium, Abuja on May 28 and 29, 2022.

The fallouts

Those who watched Rivers State politics closely at the time remember Wike as a loyal enforcer: ambitious, street-smart, and unafraid of political combat. Odili trusted him, but like many godfather-protégé relationships in Nigerian politics, the alliance was not destined to last forever. The succession battle that produced Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi as governor in 2007 altered the balance of power.

Initially, Wike aligned with Amaechi, serving as Chief of Staff and later as Minister of State for Education under President Jonathan. But the relationship soon soured, degenerating into one of the bitterest political feuds in Rivers State history. The Amaechi–Wike fallout was not just personal; it reshaped the political architecture of Rivers State. By 2015, Wike had outmaneuvered Amaechi, clinched the PDP governorship ticket, and defeated the APC at the polls. It was a comeback that cemented Wike’s reputation as a political brawler who thrives in conflict and combat.

Also, the fallout from the 2022 PDP primary election ahead of the 2023 general election, created animosity between Wike and Atiku, and he worked against the PDP in the election, and on October 20, 2024 he emphatically told Atiku Abubakar to pack up and go home.

Doing the hatchet job for APC inside PDP without consequences

The idea of Wike “doing the hatchet job for the APC inside the PDP” did not emerge overnight, nor was it built on sentiments alone. It is rooted in a series of deliberate actions, strategic silences, and political choices that, taken together, weakened the PDP from within while advancing the interests of its chief rival ahead of the 2023 elections and beyond.

At the height of his influence within the PDP, Wike was not just another governor; he was the party’s most effective mobiliser, financier, and enforcer. His loyalty, up until 2022, was rarely questioned. This precisely made his eventual posture so devastating to the party. Wike called the shots and no one – it seemed – could challenge him or question his methods.

It is said that when someone on the inside understands the structure, the pressure points, and the personalities, the damage they can inflict is far greater than any external opposition. The breaking point came after the PDP presidential primaries. Wike’s loss to Atiku Abubakar bruised his ambition, but more importantly, exposed unresolved fault lines within the party – zoning, power balance, and internal democracy.

G5 Governors

The loss and the subsequent refusal of the party to zone the national chairman’s position to the South triggered the infamous rebellion of the G5 governors: Wike, Seyi Makinde (Oyo State), Okezie Ikpeazu (Abia State), Samuel Ortom Benue State), and Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi (Enugu State).

Instead of seeking reconciliation, Wike chose confrontation. The G5 governors’ formation was the first visible sign that the battle would not be fought against the APC alone, but within the PDP itself. From that moment, his actions consistently derailed PDP’s chances. It was an open revolt against the PDP hierarchy, and Wike was its undisputed leader.

While Makinde tried to balance loyalty with dissent, Wike went all in. He turned his guns on his own party, sabotaged Atiku’s campaign, and actively opposed the PDP during the 2023 presidential election. Although he did not officially endorse the APC presidential candidate, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, his decision to abstain from campaigning for Atiku conveyed a strong message to both party members and voters, particularly in the South-South.

Complete transformation from being a PDP loyalist

In the realm of politics, silence often speaks volumes. Wike through his subtle body language, intentional withdrawals and calculated criticisms of the PDP leadership, created confusion and discouragement among the party’s supporters.

The impact was even more pronounced in Rivers State. Although traditionally a PDP stronghold, the results of the presidential election revealed a stark contrast, as the party lost the state in the presidential race, while still holding onto the governorship, an outcome widely attributed to Wike’s political engineering.

The development marked Wike’s transformation from party loyalist to political mercenary in the eyes of many observers. Many within the PDP saw this split outcome as evidence of internal sabotage – a classic case of securing local control while sacrificing the national interest. The APC, without winning hearts organically, benefited from the internal fracture.

What made the situation more striking was Wike’s continued use of PDP structures to prosecute this rebellion. He did not defect; instead, he remained in the party, attended selective meetings, influenced decisions, and controlled key stakeholders, while working against the party’s central objective: winning the presidential election. Unlike open defectors, Wike operated from within, where his reach and credibility were at their strongest and devastating.

The post-election developments validated long-held suspicions that there had been a quiet understanding: weaken the PDP when it matters most, and be rewarded afterward. His appointment as Minister of the Federal Capital Territory by President Tinubu confirmed the suspicion.

To APC strategists, the proponent of Enye ndi eba was invaluable. He weakened the opposition, fractured the PDP’s base in the South-South, and delivered strategic wins without formally defecting.

Like Ganduje

Ganduje delivered Kano to APC, crushed internal opposition, and played his role in strengthening the party’s northern base. But once his utility value declined and internal dynamics shifted, he found himself politically isolated, fighting for relevance within the same party he helped consolidate.

Wike appears to be walking the same path as Ganduje. He has done the dirty work: fractured the PDP, weakened Atiku, and destabilised opposition strongholds. But Nigerian politics is ruthless with its allies. Once the job is done, sentiments have no role to play. Every move must be strategic with an end game in mind.

The Fubara factor: A successor turned rival

In Nigerian politics, the most dangerous enemy is often not the opposition, but the successor installed by the godfather. If Wike’s troubles were only national, he might still be secure and safe. But the real danger lies at home.

The unfolding conflict between Wike and his estranged political-son cum Rivers State governor, Siminalayi Fubara, fits squarely into this familiar pattern – one where succession, rather than securing influence, becomes the seed of rebellion. To understand the Wike–Fubara fallout, it is important to first recall how Fubara emerged. Wike handpicking him as Rivers governor was meant to be a loyal extension of his authority. Instead, he has become a symbol of rebellion against Wike’s political dominance.

Fubara was not a grassroots politician with an independent power base. He was a technocrat – a civil servant, an accountant – whose political rise was entirely engineered by Wike. As Rivers State Accountant-General and later Commissioner for Finance, Fubara was trusted, protected, and elevated.

When Wike needed a successor he could control, Fubara appeared the perfect choice: loyal, quiet, non-confrontational, and lacking a political structure of his own. That calculation, however, underestimated one thing: power changes people, and independence comes with authority.

The disagreement between the estranged political father and son was swift and brutal. It exposed the fragile nature of imposed succession and reminded Nigerians that loyalty in power rarely survives independence. At the heart of the disagreement is not ideology, governance style, or party loyalty. It is control. What began as a disagreement over control of the State of House Assembly and party structure soon escalated into a full-blown political war.

Wike expected to retain decisive influence over Rivers State after leaving office: the House of Assembly, the party structure, appointments, and the security architecture. This is standard practice in Nigerian succession politics, where outgoing governors seek to rule by proxy.

Fubara, on the other hand, quickly realised that governing without autonomy would reduce him to a caretaker, not a leader. And the moment he began asserting independence by questioning inherited power structures, slowing down directives, and resisting external control, the relationship fractured.

The conflict became public when tensions spilled into the State House of Assembly. Lawmakers loyal to Wike attempted to assert dominance, expecting the governor to comply. Instead, Fubara resisted, refusing to rubber-stamp legislative decisions that clearly served interests outside the executive.

This resistance was interpreted by Wike’s camp as betrayal. The response was swift: impeachment threats, court actions, and institutional pressure. But rather than weaken Fubara, these moves exposed how deep Wike’s control over state institutions had been – and how determined Fubara was to dismantle it.

Another flashpoint was control of the PDP structure in Rivers State. Wike had built a formidable party machinery over eight years tenure as governor, one that revolved around personal loyalty rather than institutional balance. Fubara’s attempt to influence party decisions, make fresh appointments, and redirect resources were seen as attempts to uproot that machinery.

Equally sensitive was financial authority. As a former finance expert, Fubara understood the mechanics of state funds. Any attempt to dictate spending priorities from outside the statehouse was bound to meet resistance. This further deepened suspicion between both camps.

The dispute moved beyond politics into personal territory. Public statements became sharper; allies traded accusations, loyalists on both sides hardened their positions. What could have been resolved quietly became a full-blown power struggle. For Wike, the issue was legacy and relevance. Losing control of Rivers State meant losing the political base that had sustained his national relevance. For Fubara, the fight became existential. Surrendering would mean governing in name only – a fate many Nigerian governors have lived to regret.

Abuja enters the fray

The final shift in the power equation came when Fubara found unexpected backing from the presidency after being suspended from office from March to September, 2025, when a state of emergency was imposed on Rivers State by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Rather than isolate him, federal influence appeared to have stabilised his position. This backing altered the balance of power.

In a twist that would have been unthinkable two years ago, Governor Fubara is now widely seen as the emerging APC-aligned power in Rivers State, even without formally defecting. His quiet but firm alliance with the presidency, influential APC governors like Hope Uzodinma of Imo State and key stakeholders have repositioned him as Abuja’s preferred ally in the oil-rich state.

Governor Uzodinma is believed to be a crucial link in this evolving alignment. As the chairman of Progressive (APC) Governors Forum (with 28 governors, and still counting), an influential figure of the party in the South-East and a trusted ally of the president, he reportedly played a behind-the-scenes role in stabilising Fubara’s relationship with the centre.

The implication is clear: Wike was no longer the authority he once was and may no longer be the APC’s most valuable asset in Rivers State. This development transformed Fubara from a besieged successor into a viable power centre – one capable of surviving Wike’s pressure and putting him in his place.

As Wike’s strategic value appears to be diminishing, Fubara is enjoying the solid backing of the presidency and APC governors. What this means is that in Nigerian politics, yesterday’s enforcer can quickly become today’s liability.

The 2027 Imo plot for Samuel Anyanwu: Uzodinma checkmates Wike

Adding to the layer of the intrigue is Wike’s reported interest in influencing the 2027 governorship election in Imo State. His alleged plan to support the National Secretary of a divided PDP, Senator Samuel Anyanwu, as gubernatorial candidate, is seen by many as both ambitious and a joke taken too far.

With Imo State currently under APC control and Uzodinma firmly entrenched in national APC power structures, any attempt by Wike to shape the succession there – especially through PDP machinery – could put him on a collision course with forces far stronger than those he previously battled in Rivers.

If the presidency and APC governors are indeed rallying around Fubara and Uzodinma as their South-South and South-East anchors respectively, Wike’s Imo ambition may be viewed less as strategy and more as provocation. According to analysts, Wike’s political style – combative, transactional, unapologetically confrontational – has delivered victories but also burned bridges. His fallouts with Odili, Amaechi, PDP leaders, Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo state, and now, Fubara, reveals an egregious pattern: alliances built on control rather than consensus.

Governor Seyi Makinde, once a G5 ally, has quietly distanced himself, choosing reconciliation with the PDP leaders over endless bitterness and acrimony. What remains unclear is whether Wike still has the institutional backing to survive another major political storm.

Wike’s biggest fear and why he’s agitated

Who wants to bury Wike politically? It is Governor Fubara – that is if he gets a second term in office. This explains why Wike embarked on stakeholders’ engagements with his allies in Rivers State recently. He is holding on to a peace agreement that has since expired, claiming that Fubara will do only one term, but this is the same politician who served two terms as governor, amongst other public offices he has been holding since his days as a local government chairman

Wike is forgetting that since Fubara joined APC, he is now the leader of the party in Rivers State and fully endorsed by the power brokers in Abuja. The FCT Minister cannot come to terms with this reality and it is precisely why he is agitated. The godfather’s ego has been bruised and he is now licking his wounds. Wike should just accept that the table has turned – he can bark, but he may not be able to bite again, except he is cat with nine lives

Fireworks from Senator Ajibola Basiru, APC National Secretary

After taking on Governor Hope Uzodinma, Wike decided to turn the heat on Senator Ajibola Basiru, APC National Secretary. This was clearly a strategic blunder by Wike who always thinks he can take on every fight.

After warning Basiru to stay clear from Rivers State politics and the “pot of gold” in the Garden City, the APC scribe fired back in a strongly worded response, asking Wike to resign as FCT Minister, and “face his obsession with Rivers politics.”

He reminded Wike that he is not a member of APC and therefore “lacks the locus to dabble into the affairs of our party.” Senator Basiru also told Wike that he is not God and he may be overplaying his political card.

If you read between the lines, it is evident that the APC National Secretary is speaking the minds of the party’s leaders and key stakeholders who disagree strongly with Wike’s provocative style and obsession with power.

2027: Survival or Sunset?

As 2027 approaches, Wike stands at a crossroads. He is still powerful, still influential, and still capable of disruption, but the signs suggest his dominance is being quietly checked, not by open confrontation, but by strategic isolation.

If Fubara consolidates Rivers with APC backing, and Uzodinma retains control of Imo and the Progressive Governors’ Forum, Wike may find himself boxed in: too controversial for the PDP, increasingly expendable to the APC. His fallout with Fubara reveals the limits of political grandstanding, and put paid to the fact that succession may be planned, but loyalty cannot be legislated.

Wike built Fubara. In Nigerian politics, builders rarely own what they built once power is transferred. Once power changes hands, authority follows the new office, not the previous influence which gradually fades away. The irony is sharp: in trying to secure his future through control, Wike may have accelerated the rise of his most formidable rival – one forged by the very system he created.

History offers a cautionary lesson: Nigerian politics does not reward lone warriors for long. The question is no longer whether Wike can fight; he has proven that repeatedly with a heavy war chest. The real question is whether, this time, he still has supporters – apart from his die-hard foot soldiers in Rivers State and some political associates – willing to fight for him.

If not, does it mean he would be joining a long list of political heavyweights who refused to sing from another hymn book when it was commonsensical to do so? Time will tell.

CREDIT: Naija Times (www.ntm.ng)

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